Friday, 12 December 2014

Government invests to kick start development

Government invests to kick start development
*Cosme da Costa Araujo
 
Timor-Leste’s 2015 budget is currently being discussed in the National Parliament. Lawmakers unanimously approved “the generalities” last week and they will continue to discuss “the specifics” over the next two weeks until the whole budget discussion concludes on the 19th December 2014.
 
A great achievement starts with a dream
 
Timor-Leste once dreamt of independence, of which then so-called “realists” saw as an impossible dream. Now Timor-Leste dreams of development and skeptics see it as an unrealistic dream. The truth is that every great achievement is a dream before it becomes reality. It requires a plan, hard work and persistence to make a dream comes true.
 
As with the other previous year budgets, 2015’s budget will continue to focus on funding Government’s strategies designed towards achieving Timor-Leste’s aspiration to transition from a low-income to an upper-middle income country by 2030 with a prosperous, healthy and educated population. The Strategic Development Plan (SDP) sets outs “a pathway” to make this dream come true. In doing so, the Plan aims to develop core infrastructure, human resources and economic development in priority sectors such as agriculture, tourism and oil and gas.
 
 “Frontloading” to fast track development
 
Petroleum Fund is the cornerstone of the Government’s policy for economic development. Most Government’s investments were financed by Petroleum Fund with additional financing from domestic taxes, loans and donors’ assistance. The Petroleum Fund is a fiscal tool that helps to manage petroleum revenues wisely to benefit both current and future generations. By doing so, it plays the roles of both saving and stabilizing mechanisms. For the former, the Petroleum Fund ensures that future generations have an equitable access to and share of the nation’s wealth, and with the latter it helps to minimize budget volatility and ensure macroeconomic stability.
 
Over the last ten years, the Government executed $6.4 billion out of the total $8.6 billion budgeted. The Petroleum Fund financed $5.5 billion of that investment (Estimated Sustainable Income + Excess Withdrawal). Of the $1.7 billion in excess of the ESI to be withdrawn from the Fund, $1.2 billion was executed. Not withdrawing the full budgeted amount is not a bad thing. The Government is aware of the opportunity costs associated with parking the unspent amount in the Treasury account, therefore money is withdrawn only when it is needed and left in the Fund as long as possible to earn a higher return. If none of us busy “facebooking”, the alleged $1.7 billion unaccounted for would not have come up.
 
The rationale behind withdrawing temporary excess withdrawal, which is the Government’s “frontloading” policy, is to fast track the development of basic infrastructure. Temporary excess withdrawals are necessary to ensure major investments in building important basic infrastructures and human resources in the country. Big investments in these two areas are the only way to raise productivity and promote job growth in the long-run. Of the total $2.4 billion budgeted for Infrastructure Fund, $1.3 billion was withdrawn from the Fund and $1.2 billion was executed. The unspent amount was rolled over to the next budget year.
 
It is a natural process where “at the first development stage, Government takes the leading role to get the investment going”, especially at the time when private sector was “still fledging and not yet ready to assume its leading role as driver of the economy”. The investments in infrastructure and human resources benefit both current and future generations alike. Once most of the necessary infrastructures are in place, the Government’s capital investment can then be reduced. The Government’s fiscal policy would then be for total expenditures to equal domestic revenues plus ESI. With Petroleum Fund’s assets diversified into return seeking assets to earn an average long-term real return of 3%, fiscal policy will be aligned with investment policy, leaving the Fund’s capital intact for the foreseeable future. 
 
A lot was done in ten years
 
Arguing that all of the Government’s investments so far have gone down the drain is simply unfair and misleading. Being independent for just 12 years old, Timor-Leste is “making significant progress in such a short time in a post-conflict society”. Of nearly $9 billion spent by donors in Timor-Leste between 1999 and 2009, less than 10% benefited Timorese and what Timor-Leste left with were thousands of unread reports and a crisis. With about two third of that amount Timor-Leste has accomplished a lot. Ramos Horta, former President of Timor-Leste, agreed when he observed that “not all was bad and a lot was done in ten years”.
 
A peaceful and stable country - Timor-Leste managed to say “goodbye to conflict” and achieve peace and stability in just a short period of time. Without peace and stability there can be no development. Significant progress made to date would not be possible without the Government’s effort to consolidate peace and stability. Timor-Leste cannot afford to lose the momentum and the benefits forgone while dwelling with resolving the conflict. Therefore, the Government will continue to maintain peace and stability at whatever cost.
 
An impressive economic growth - Timor-Leste’s economy has continued to show impressive double-digit growth since 2007, which prompted the Economist to name Timor-Leste among the nine fastest growing economies of the world in 2011. In addition, Timor-Leste has one of the world’s most investment friendly environments. Apart from lower tax rate and business costs, the ease of doing business improved considerably as evidenced by the recent 2014’s WB Doing Business Report. The improvement was attributed to the creation of SERVE – the one-stop-shop for starting up a business.
 
A private sector starts to take hold - the Government has issued 163 certificates of investment for 112 foreign investors and 51 national investors. Investors from 18 countries are investing in construction, hospitality, trade, transportation, tourism and many other industries, creating 4,524 jobs for the Timorese. Private sector growth has translated into domestic revenue that has grown strongly in recent years. A total $900 million was collected from domestic tax in the last ten years, averaging about $100 million per year.  The amount forecasted to be collected in 2015 amounts to $170 million, 62% higher than the amount collected in 2011. Agriculture production, measured in real term, increased from 0.30% in 2008 to 14% in 2012.
 
An improved living standard - the 2011’s UNDP Human Development Report placed Timor-Leste in the medium human development category. Timor-Leste ranked 120 out of 169 countries and moved ahead of other countries in the region like Cambodia, Lao, and Myanmar and ranked higher than PNG, and most Sub-Saharan African countries. Household consumption increased from 22% in 2007 to 53% in 2013 and further compounded as inflation falls to a record low averaging at 1.3% in the first 2 quarters of 2014. Average life expectancy increased from 57 in 2005 and 67 in 2014.
 
An improved health service - infant and child mortality had been halved. Incidences of malaria and dengue decreased significantly and the World Health Organization (WHO) honored Timor-Leste’s success in 2014. The same world organization also considers Timor-Leste to be free from leprosy. The percentage of children with below average weight fell from 46% in 2001 to 38% in 2013. The ratio between medical staffs and patients also improved. About 710 Timorese medics work in districts, of which 442 were allocated to Sucos and Aldeias and the rest were distributed to regional hospitals. In the next 2-3 years, Timor-Leste will have more medics than any country in Asia. In term of infrastructure, 122 health facilities across 13 districts were built and rehabilitated.
 
An improved education accessibility and professional development - the percentage of children attending school increased considerably from 66% in 2007 to 92% in 2013. By the end of the decade, 60% of young children from the poorest families were in school. As of 2014 Government provided scholarships to about 2,571 Timorese to study in various universities in the country (52%) and overseas. In addition, about 16,931 Timorese attended professional technical trainings provided by training centers in the country (96%) and overseas. A total 311 schools across 13 districts were rehabilitated and a set of 50,000 chairs and tables were purchased and distributed and the remaining 50,000 will be distributed earlier next year.
 
A better accessibility  - more than half of the population has access to electricity, which often make people in the other side of the borders are jealous of. Household access to electricity improved from 22% in 2007 to 53% in 2013. Numerous irrigations schemes, water and sanitation, kilometers of national and rural roads, bridges, markets were rehabilitated and constructed and preliminary studies were done for the construction of ports and airports.
 
Governments’ social programs start to pay dividend - many recipients can now afford to send their children to schools, even to private schools in and out of the country, rebuild their houses, and improve their daily dieta.
 
A bumpy road still lies ahead
 
Despite all of the significant progress made to date, the quality of the investment still needs to be improved. As a dollar spent cannot be spent twice, we therefore need to make sure every dollar spent counts. The Government has taken necessary measures through “organization of procurement and oversights of procedures to ensure better quality minimize waste”.
 
The ride towards achieving the dream of becoming an upper middle-income country with a prosperous, healthy and educated population will be a bumpy one. But just like the road to Maliana, things are improving and our journey is becoming smoother. A lot of challenges still lie ahead and they cannot be overcome in a single generation. Just like Rome, Timor-Leste cannot be built overnight. It may not be us but our children and grand children that will enjoy the full fruit of the development. The Government’s budgets and Strategic Development plan meet our responsibility to ensure that they have the best for themselves.
 
 

Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Timor stands up, international elites say sit down

By Amb. Pierre-Richard Prosper - - Friday, November 28, 2014
 
 
The recent news that Timor-Leste’s parliament voted to terminate contracts of the international judges it has relied upon since the birth of its country should be seen as a major step forward in the small pacific-island nation’s path toward true self-governance.
 
By this act, Timor has shown the world it is committed to gaining its full independence and ending its reliance on the international community. After years of violence, sacrifice and grave human rights abuses committed against it, Timor continues to move forward. It took another step when it ended the United Nation’s operational control over its government and people, despite the fact that many in the UN community deemed the move unacceptable and premature.
 
But Timor officials were committed to get off the world body’s agenda and the international welfare system. Now, the country that became a nation in 2002 is sending another strong and clear message by eliminating the role of international judges as the principle decision makers and removing their hold on the Timor judicial system.
 
As one of the first prosecutors before an international tribunal and a diplomat under Presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush, I had the responsibility of leading efforts throughout the world to build the rule of law. I provided and coordinated technical legal assistance to developing and post-conflict countries like Rwanda, Cambodia, Sierra Leone and in the Balkans.
 
As part of that mandate, I played a role in recruiting and placing lawyers and judges in systems to assist in capacity building and promote accountability. In the beginning of 2000, under the direction and pursuant to the policy of President Clinton, I was sent to Timor to initiate the effort to create the first justice system in an independent Timor. Our stated goal was to recruit international experts to train, advise and assist the new system - but not lead it. The international community specifically rejected an international tribunal believing domestic ownership of the judiciary was necessary and proper.
 
Timor officials were sensitive to the need for international assistance early on but wanted sovereign development. However, what has transpired is that with the passage of time, international jurists enjoyed full power and a culture of judicial dependency emerged. This dependency resulted in the internationals maintaining and possessing effective control over the system for the last 12 years.
 
This control has stifled growth in domestic judicial capacity and caused many local jurists to defer judgment to the more experienced internationalists. Meanwhile, some of the international jurists underperformed, were essentially unaccountable since their regulatory body was far away from the courthouse steps in Dili, and believed that Timor should simply be grateful for their presence.
 
The international community talks a lot about capacity building. Many of those advocating for young democracies to do more to engrain the rule of law are the very ones complaining when the new governments begin to make sovereign decisions regarding what is best for their judiciary. It is all too easy to criticize a new democracy from the comforts of 250-plus year old systems. Demanding that gold-plated systems be created overnight is unrealistic and frankly a patronizing expectation. The European and U.S. systems, which are held out as the standard, were not created overnight nor could they have been. It took centuries of trial, error, controversy and reform to gain the acceptance and faith we have in them – generally - today. And yet, they remain imperfect.
 
The Timor parliament has taken the long-view in its path towards independence. It realizes that mistakes have been made by international jurists and local experts alike. It has also created a new independent commission of international and domestic experts to audit and critique the still-new judicial system.
 
While we all hope that young democracies such as Timor will work to minimize the errors that will surely occur, we must recognize that organic and consistent growth is the surest way to create a strong and enduring system. Timor has taken a major step forward in controlling its own future, it should be applauded for the progress. We frankly often see too little of it from fragile and new states.
 
Ambassador Pierre-Richard Prosper is the former U.S. Ambassador at Large for War Crimes and represents the Government of Timor-Leste in various legal matters.

 

Defesa da soberania implica consolidar funcionamento responsável do Estado -- Xanana Gusmão

02 de Dezembro de 2014, 08:45
 
 
O primeiro-ministro, Xanana Gusmão, afirmou ontem que a defesa da soberania implica consolidar a autonomia e o funcionamento responsável de todas as instituições do Estado para garantir a "proteção do bem comum", segundo agência Lusa.
"Timor-Leste está determinado em fazer vencer a sua vontade política coletiva, consubstanciada nos valores democráticos que partilhamos e que estão plasmados na Constituição, e, a defesa da nossa soberania implica também a consolidação da autonomia e funcionamento eficiente, profissional e responsável de todas as instituições do Estado", disse Xanana Gusmão.

O primeiro-ministro discursava no parlamento nacional no início da discussão do Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2015, que deverá terminar no próximo dia 18.

"Se um destes órgãos se encontra debilitado, toda a máquina do Estado é afetada e exige uma ação imediata para a proteção do bem comum. É por isso imperativo garantir que onde são detetadas fragilidades no funcionamento do Estado como um todo, se atue com vista ao seu fortalecimento, usando da interdependência de poderes", salientou.

Xanana Gusmão referia-se, embora sem nunca o afirmar diretamente, às recentes resoluções aprovadas pelas autoridades timorenses que determinaram uma auditoria ao setor da Justiça por razões de "força maior e interesse nacional", que culminaram com a expulsão de magistrados portugueses do país.

"Muitos talvez não compreendam isto e não entendam os mais altos valores de soberania que temos de defender. Muitos ainda não compreenderam os desafios que se colocam a um país jovem como o nosso que foi construído a partir do nada", sublinhou, no discurso de 18 páginas.

Segundo Xanana Gusmão, as particularidades e o futuro de Timor-Leste e os sacrifícios do povo "exigem por vezes tomadas de posição rigorosas ainda que incompreendidas à escala das ditas democracias modernas e seculares".

"Ao que outros chamam de arrogância é, no entanto, para nós timorenses, meramente o reconhecimento da necessidade premente de corrigir aquilo que não nos serve e de reformar aquilo que não protege os interesses superiores da Nação", explicou Xanana Gusmão.

@Lusa

Thursday, 27 November 2014

Extraordinary Meeting of the Council of Ministers from November 21st, 2014

Presidency of the Council of Ministers

V Constitutional Government
.............................................................................................................................
Dili, November 21st, 2014
Press Release
 
The Council of Ministers met extraordinarily this Friday, November 21st, 2014, in the Council of Ministers Meeting Room, at the Government Palace, in Dili, and approved two diplomas:
 
1. Government Resolution approving the Investment Agreement with Heineken Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.
 
The Heineken Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd proposed project, for the construction of a beer factory in Timor-Leste, entails an investment exceeding forty million dollars.
Following the proposal evaluation by an Investment Commission comprised by several institutions, and whose results were presented to the Council of Ministers on the meeting of September 17th, the Government has decided to approve an Investment Agreement with Heineken, under which some tax benefits provided for in the Investment Law are conceded to the company.
 
2. Decree Law regulating the Special Development Fund
 
The Fund is aimed at financing, in an efficient, safe and transparent way, the implementation of a set of projects included in the development plan for the Special Administrative Region of Oe-Cusse Ambeno.
 
The Council of Ministers also analyzed four presentations:
 
1. Pelican Paradise Investment Project
 
The State Secretariat for the Support and Promotion of the Private Sector presented to the Council of Ministers the investment project from the international company Pelican Paradise Holdings Timor-Leste located in Singapore, for the construction and exploration of a five star hotel complex located between Díli and Tibar, with an investment of around 310 million dollars.
 
The project includes a hotel with 492 bedrooms, gym, restaurant, spa, convention center for one thousand and five-hundred people, golf course, commercial area and residential area.
 
During the construction stage of the hotel complex, the Investor estimates that one-thousand and five-hundred direct jobs may be created, 70% to 80% of which can be carried out by Timorese. Once the hotel complex is completed and operational, the investor foresees that 830 jobs will be established and maintained, 70% to 80% of which can be carried out by Timorese.
 
2. Arbitration Process and Maritime Boundaries Dispute
 
The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources presented, to the Council of Ministers, an current assessment of the Arbitration Process and Maritime Boundaries Dispute.
 
3. Timor GAP Activity Report
 
The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, alongside the President for Timor GAP, E.P. has presented, to the Council of Ministers, the company’s Activity Report, for the years 2012 and 2013. The documents include detailed data on human resources, accomplished projects and projects to be developed, Timor-Leste Onshore prospecting studies, business and partnership opportunities, development of the National Oil industry, joint petroleum development area, amongst others.
 
4. Calendar of Activities during the Presidency of the CPLP
 
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation presented, to the Council of Ministers, the calendar of the activities scheduled to occur during the Rotating Presidency of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLC), by Timor-Leste (2014-2016), and of which the highlights are the high level ministerial meetings between ministers of several areas, from the nine countries belonging to this organization.

Xanana Expresses Discontent Scorn and Anger towards Australia

Written by Tempo Semanal
 

Governo aprova investimento da cervejeira Heineken em Timor-Leste

http://noticias.sapo.tl/portugues/info/artigo/1422783.html

26 de Novembro de 2014, 10:47

 
O Governo anunciou ontem a aprovação dum projeto da cervejeira Heineken para construir uma fábrica de cerveja no país, num investimento superior a 40 milhões de dólares, segundo comunicado divulgado à imprensa.
 
"Na sequência da avaliação da proposta, por uma Comissão de Investimento composta por várias instituições, cujos resultados foram apresentados ao Conselho de Ministros na reunião de 17 de setembro, o Governo decidiu aprovar um Acordo de Investimento com a Heineken, ao abrigo da qual lhe são concedidos alguns benefícios fiscais previstos na Lei de Investimento", refere em comunicado.
 
A Heineken Ásia, baseada em Singapura, tinha já anunciado intenção de investir 40 milhões de dólares (cerca de 31 milhões de euros) no país para construir uma fábrica e produzir cervejas e bebidas alcoólicas e não alcoólicas.
 
A empresa, que em Timor-Leste está registada como Heineken Timor, S.A, pretende criar 1000 postos de trabalho no país.
 
No mesmo comunicado, referente à reunião de Conselho de Ministros do passado dia 21, o Governo informa que analisou um projeto de investimento de uma empresa com sede em Singapura para a construção e exploração de um complexo hoteleiro de cinco estrelas entre Díli e Tíbar, onde deverá ser construído o novo porto do país.
 
Segundo o comunicado, o investimento ronda os 310 milhões de dólares e na fase inicial de construção deverá criar 1500 postos de trabalho diretos.
 
"Quando estiver concluído e em funcionamento, o investidor prevê que sejam criados e mantidos 830 postos de trabalho, sendo que 70% a 80% podem ser preenchidos por timorenses", refere o comunicado.

@Lusa

Wednesday, 26 November 2014

PF Q3 Report - "Incomes did not exceed expenses" is an unfair assessment

*Cosme da Costa Araujo
Lao Hamutuk and the Diplomat rightly pointed out that Petroleum Fund balance decreased in Q3, compared to Q2 balance. The decrease, as they mentioned, was due to foreign exchange losses and also transfer made to the State Budget.

But arguing that "FOR THE FIRST TIME, EAST TIMOR'S INCOME FROM OIL AND GAS OPERATIONS DID NOT EXCEED THE EXPENSES RELATED TO THE OIL FUND" is unfair.

It seems that their conclusion is based on the following calculation - petroleum revenues in Q3 ($522 mil) minus losses and transfers ($340+231), resulted in about negative $50 mil.

However, it is an unfair comparison in terms of the time period and not a true representation of the withdrawal. Ideally, the government should smooth the expenditure (withdrawal) over the year, by taking out $158 mil/quarter (of total ESI amount of $632 that is expected to be withdrawn in 2014).

The $340 mil amount mentioned here is the total amount the Government had withdrawn so far in 2014 from the Petroleum Fund, just half of the budgeted ESI amount. This amount happened to be a "lump sump" withdrawal in Q3 (as no withdrawals were made in Q1 & Q2). Q3 therefore is bearing the burden of the withdrawal.

To be fair, in term of period comparison, it is better to look at the-year-to-date (YTD) numbers. In doing so, we can see that even if the Government manages to withdraw total ESI amount ($632 mil) by the end of 2014, it is still less than the total revenue received for the year to date ($1,606 mil), not to mention revenues from investment return ($365 mil year to date).

The declining trend in revenue is something that the Government acknowledges publicly in its Annual Budget Book 1. According to that report revenues have peaked in 2012 and are expected to decline from 2013 onward until they cease in 2020 - 2022.


BARRIERS TO LONG-TERM FINANCING AT AFFORDABLE RATES: INTRODUCING A NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK TO SUPPORT TIMOR-LESTE PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT

BARRIERS TO LONG-TERM FINANCING AT AFFORDABLE RATES: INTRODUCING A NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK TO SUPPORT TIMOR-LESTE PRIVATE SECTOR DEVEL...