Inflasaun iha Timor-Leste – “causas, consequências e soluções”

Inflasaun iha Timor-Leste – “causas, consequências e soluções”

Cosme da Costa Araujo

Inflasaun sai tiha tópiku ida interesante durante debate orsamentu jerál estadu 2014. Ema hotu, iha bibán ne’ebá (to’o agora mós sei), koalia konaba inflasaun. Bibán ne’ebá sai hanesan kulminasaun husi halerik tomak ba inflasaun -  sasán folin a’as - ne’ebé kleur tiha ona ita hasoru, haré no rona.

Inflasaun laos akontese deit iha Timor-Leste. Nasaun seluk mos hasoru problema hanesan. Inflasaun ne’ebé mosu iha Timor-Leste hanesan konsekuênsia inevitável husi prosesu dezenvolvimentu nasionál.  Ho taxa kresimentu ekonómiku ne’ebé bo’ot, akompaña mos ho taxa inflation ne’ebe a’as.

Inflasaun laos buat a’at ida ne’ebé ita tenki halakon tiha kompletamente. Inflasaun laiha mós la diak ba dezenvolvimentu sósiu-ekonómiku nasaun ida nian, hanesan nasaun Japaun ne’ebé besik dékada rua ona hasoru hela problema deflasaun (sasán folin tun) ou inflasaun negativu. Nune’e mos nasaun dezenvolvidu sira seluk, hanesan Estadus Unidus Ámerika (EUA) no Reinu-Unidu (RU), agora dau-daun hasoru hela problema inflasaun ida ki’ik tebes. Sira tenta hela, liu husi polítika monetáriu no fiskál inklui quantitative easing iha EUA no RU no Abenomic iha Japaun, hodi hasae inflasaun ba nível ida razoável.

Inflasaun sai problema wainhira taxa inflasaun a’as liu tiha nível ida razoável, liu-liu inflasaun dubru díjitu hanesan iha Timor-Leste. Kauza prinsipál ne’ebé hamosu inflasaun maka dezekilibriu entre demanda no fornesimentu. Dezekilibriu iha ne’e refere ba demanda ba sasán ne’ebé a’as liu tiha fornesimentu ba sasán hirak ne’e ou fornesimentu la natón hodi hatán ba demanda ne’ebé a’as.

Ema barak, hahú husi ita nai-ulun to’o ba populasaun sira, ho fasilmente identifika causas do inflação  iha Timor-Leste. Balun temin produsaun rai-laran menus, portu Dili ki’ik no servisu la efisiente no efikás, dependensia a’as ba importasaun, manipulasaun sasán folin, limitasaun infra-estrutura, sirkulasaun osan, no sst. Kondisaun desfavorável hirak ne’e hotu kontribui liu tan ba dezekilibriu entre demanda no fornesimentu. PM Xanana Gusmão, iha debate orsamentu 2014, hateten inflasaun ne’ebe bo’ot mai husi fatores oi-oin. Nune’e ita fahe fatores oi-oin ne’e ba buat rua - fatór esternu no fatór  internu.

Fatóres esternus ne’ebé hamosu inflasaun maka hanesan – primeiru depresiasaun dólar. Wainhira valór dólar tun, sasán hirak ne’ebé ita sosa husi rai-liur nia folin sai karun. Ikus mai ita fa’an fali sasán hirak ne’e iha rai-laran ho folin karun liu tan. Sigundu inflasaun mosu tamba sasán, liu-liu sasán importadu, folin sa’e iha merkadu internasionál. Hetok wainhira ita nia ekonomia depende makas ba rai-liur, hanesan Dr. Mari Alkatiri dehan, maka ita sosa mos inflasaun. Ekonomistas hanaran ida ne’e inflação importado, katak inflasaun importa ou kauza ou sosa mai husi rai-liur.

Fatóres internus ne’ebé hamosu inflasaun maka hanesan – primeiru limitasaun fornesimentu. Ida ne’e refere ba kapasidade ekonomia rai-laran ne’ebé la natón hodi hatán ba aumentu iha demanda iha rai-laran. Nune’e wainhira ema barak iha Timór iha kapasidade hodi sosa sasán, maibe fornesimentu (inklui produsaun rai-laran) ba sasán hirak ne’e la natón, maka sasán hirak ne’e nia folin sei sa’e a’as. Vice MdF Santina Cardoso mós konkorda hodi dehan inflasaun sa’e tamba kuantidade produsaun iha rai-laran laiha.  Nune’e mós Ministru MCIA Antonio da Conceição, inflasaun mosu tamba Timór seidauk bele prodús rasik. Limitasaun fornesimentu (tamba produsaun rai-laran laiha ou Timór seidauk bele prodús rasik) halo fornesimentu la natón hodi hatán ba aumentu iha demanda, ikus mai halo sasán folin sa’e.

Sigundu bottlenecks liu-liu limitasaun infra-estruras bázikas impede atividades ekonómikas lao efikás no efisiente. Impedimentus sira hanesan portu Dili ki’ik no servisu la efikás no efisiente, estradas la-diak, no sst maka kria in-efisiensia, ne’ebé ikus mai hamosu kustus deznesesáriu (selu multa, kustu transporte a’as). Ministru MCIA Antonio da Conceição dehan portu no estradas ne’ebé seidauk iha kondisaun kontribui mós ba inflasaun. Wainhira vendedores nia sasán tarde iha portu Dili (tamba portu ki’ik), no hetan multa obrigatório de morante, ikus mai sira transfere multa hirak ne’e ba konsumidores liu husi hasae sasán nia folin. No wainhira sira lori sasán hirak ne’e ba distritus ho kustus transportes karun (tamba estradas la-diak), entaun folin sasán ne’ebé sira fa’an sei la hanesan ho folin ne’ebé sira sosa. Vendedores hasae sasán folin hodi rekupera fali kustus deznesesárius hirak ne’ebé sira hasai.

Terseiru, inflasaun mós mosu tamba montante osan nebe’e sirkula iha rai-laran bo’ot, maibe ekonomia rai-laran laiha kapasidade hodi absorve osan hirak ne’e. AJ Cunha hateten katak jumlah uang yang beredar sai hanesan pemicu ba inflasaun. Nune’e mós Deputadu Virgilio hateten ho osan barak nebe’e tun ba iha kraik, halo vida konsumu aumenta, (maibe fornesimentu la aumenta), nune’e inflasaun sa’e makas iha ita nia rai-laran.

Kuartu, iha mos indikasaun katak inflasaun mosu tamba manipulação do mercado. Manipulasaun iha ne’e refere ba hahalok vendedores ou fornesedores malandru balun ne’ebé mes-mesak ou hamutuk halo manipulasaun hodi hasa’e sasán folin.

Inflasaun ne’ebé a’as, liu-liu inflasaun dubru-díjitu sei fo consequências negativas ba dezenvolvimentu sósiu-ekonómiku povu ida nian liu-liu hamenus poder de compras konsumidór nian no kompetitivadade ekonómika nasaun nian.

Inflasaun ne’ebé a’as redúz poder de compras ou purchasing power ou daya beli konsumidór nian. Nune’e, ho osan (montante) hanesan, kuantidade sasán ne’ebé ita sosa sei menus ou ita presiza osan barak liu tan hodi sosa sasán ho kuantidade hanesan. Inflasaun hatodan liu povu ki’ik, tenik emprezariu Timór oan – Julio Alvaro. Nune’e ema kiak ho rendimentu fixu maka sei sofre liu tamba maioria husi sira nia rendimentu aloka ba sosa nesesidade bázika. Ho inflasaun, sira nia saláriu sei la natón atu sustenta sira nia família. Tamba inflasaun desvaloriza saláriu nominal hanesan Dr. Mari Alkatiri dehan. Maibé, solusaun ba problema ida ne’e laos liu husi hasae saláriu. Tamba sé halo nune’e sei kria deit espiral do inflação. Katak ho hasae saláriu sei hasa’e liu tan inflasaun no ikus mai ita tama ba iha ciclo do diabo ida laiha rohan.

Inflasaun ne’ebé a’as sei redúz kompetitivadade ekonómika Timor-Leste nian kompara ho parseiru komersiantes sira seluk. Ho inflasaun inputs costs sei aumenta, nune’e ikus mai prodúz produtu finais ne’ebé karun. Nune’e Timór oan sira sei prefere sosan sasán importadu (manu Timór vs ayam potong, fós-rai vs fós importadu) tamba baratu no iha rai liur ema estranjeiru sira sei la sosa produtu Timór nian tamba karun.

Fásil tebes atu idenfitika causas do inflação  iha Timor-Leste, maibe defísil tebes buka solusaun ba problema inflasaun ne’e rasik. Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu hatúr ona katak taxa inflasaun entre 4-6 pursentu maka nivel inflasaun ida razoável ba dezenvolvimentu ekonómiku Timor-Leste nian ne’ebé diak. Ida ne’e laos tárjetu ida fásil maibe mós laos imposível.

Hanesan temin iha leten, inflasaun mosu tamba dezekilibriu entre demanda no fornesimentu - fornesimentu ne’ebé la natón hodi hatán ba demanda ne’ebé a’as. Nune’e solusaun ba inflasaun ne’e rasik tenki haré liu ba oinsa hadiak no hasae fornesimentu. Ita haré fásil, maibe defísil tebes atu atinji objetivu ida ne’e. Defísil tamba – primeiru ida ne’e rekere aproximação integrada involve parte hotu-hotu, laos Governu ou MCIA deit, maibe mós seitor privadu no populasaun tomak,  no-sigundu presiza tempu ida naruk, laos tinan ida ka rua, hodi rezolve asuntu refere.

Tuir mai ne’e soluções alternativas nebe’e hau senti bele kontribui ba hamenus problema inflasaun a’as iha Timor-Leste. Primeiru, autoridade kompetente liu-liu MCIA kontinua nafatin ho sira nia esforsu tomak ne’ebé halao hela liu husi halo intervensaun ba merkadu hanesan inspeisaun ba loja, hamosu tabela do preço, no loke loja do povo. Governu intervein tamba merkadu la funsiona lolós tuir mecanismo do mercado; liu-liu tamba manipulação do preço. Polítika ida ne’e hanesan medida temporária deit hodi hein soluções seluk nebe’e diak liu, adekuadu no sustentável. Polítika intervensau merkadu la bele kontinua permantemente, se lae bele hamosu konsekuênsias tolu – primeiru governu tenki asumi kustus tamba subsídiu ne’ebé fo, liu-liu ba loja do povo; - sigundu dezinsentiva fornesedores sira hodi halo negósiu no – ikus liu hamosu black market iha ne’ebé sei iha nafatin fornesedores malandru balun ne’ebé sei kontinua sub-subar manipula sasán folin ba komsumidores sira ne’ebé desperadu tebes.

Sigundu, presiza mos tau matan no fo prioridade a’as ba hadiak kondisaun desfavorável ou bottlenecs sira hanesan limitasaun infra-estruturas bázikas. Enkuantu hein konstrusaun Portu Tibar, Ministériu Transporte no Infra-Estrutura presiza hadiak kondisaun portu Dili no buka meius oinsa halais atrakamentu no deskaregamentu ba ró sira ne’ebé barak antri hela iha tasi laran. Husu ba funsiunáriu sira iha Portu no Alfândega servisu 24 oras nia laran inklui mos loron sábadu, domingu no feriadu.  Bele mós diak liu kontrata tiha servisu portu Dili nian ba seitor privadu. Sé halo nune’e hau fiar bele hamenus tiha ró barak ne’ebé antrian hela iha tasi laran. Ministeriu relevantes tenki tau matan mos ba infra-estrutura bázika sira seluk hanesan estradas hodi nune’e bele hamenus kustus transportes, mas liu-liu fasilita movimentu produtu ba iha merkadu.

Terseiru, redús montante sirkulasaun osan iha ekonomia. Sé ita iha osan rasik no ita nia seitór finanseiru funsiona ho diak, ita bele halo intervensaun liu husi polítika monetária – hasae taxa de juros. Timor-Leste, tamba seidauk iha osan rasik, la bele halo intervensaun polítika monetária, liu-liu hodi hatán ba fatores esternus ne’ebe hamosu inflasaun.

Iha kazu Timor-Leste nian, orsamentu jeral estadu sai hanesan fonte ba sirkulasaun osan iha ekonomia. Nune’e ita bele intervein liu husi polítika fiskál. Iha ne’e hau la propoen atu hasae taxa tamba ho taxa ne’ebé a’as bele hamate investimentu. Evidensias tinan 2012 no 2013 hatudu katak governu tau ona iha konsiderasaun limitasaun kapasidade ekonomia rai-laran, limitasaun kapasidade ekzekusaun no konsekuênsia ba inflasaun, nune’e governu desidi redúz montante orsamentu 2014. Iha redusaun ba tinan ida ne’e no tinan hirak oin mai, tenki fo liu atensaun ba redús no prevene aumentu iha despezas rekorente, tamba despezas rekorente fo impaktu bo’ot liu ba inflasaun kompara ho despezas ba kapital dezenvolvimentu.

Dalan seluk ne’ebé ita bele halo maka enkoraja ou se bele karik obriga sidadaun hotu atu poupa osan ne’ebé sira simu ba tau iha banku ka ba investimentu sira seluk, duke uza ou gasta osan hirak ne’e ba buat sira ne’ebé la fo retornu ekonómiku hanesan halo-lia. Liu husi poupansa, ita bele redús sirkulasan osan tamba ema sei konsume menus, nune’e hamenus demanda ba sasán sira. Poupansa hirak ne’e mos bele kria fali multiple effect seluk liu husi (banku) finansiamentu atividadades produtivus sira seluk.

Solusaun ikus no importante liu maka oinsa hasae fornesimentu ne’e rasik. Komesa hanoin ona identifika produtus, liu-liu nesesidadades bázikas hirak ne’ebé maka ema barak sosa ou konsumu, no bele subtitui no prodús rasik iha rai-laran. Ita hanoin uluk oinsa asegura fornesimentu sufisiente ba merkadu rai-laran, no iha tempu hanesan mos hanoin ona konaba polítika subtituisaun importasaun no ikus liu maka ita haksoit ba esportasaun. Iha faze ida ne’e, seitor públiku tenki hahú no ajuda seitor privadu hodi fo asistensia téknika no finanseiru, no liu-liu kria kondisaun favorável hodi atrai investidores (rai-laran no rai-liur) hodi mai investe iha seitor naun-petrolíferu, laos mai hadau malu fali projeitus governu nian sira. Laos seitor públiku, maibe seitor privadu maka tenki sai autor prinsipal hodi hasae fornesimentu ne’e rasik.

Hau mos propoin liu husi meiu ida ne’e atu tau kláuzula ida iha kontratu ne’ebé obriga emprezariu sira, liu-liu emprezariu lokal sira nebe’e hetan ona projeitu governu nian, hodi aloka no investe persentajen balun husi sira nia rendimentu ba iha investimentu seitór produtivu. Halo nune’e sei asegura sira nia sustentabilidade wainhira projeitu governu nia remata ona no iha tempu hanesan bele ajuda hasae fornesimentu rai-laran no hamenus dependensia ba importasaun.

Atu remata, inflasaun mosu tamba dezekilibriu entre demanda no fornesimentu – demanda a’as liu tiha fornesimentu. Inflasaun laos buat ida la-diak, maibe inflasaun ne’ebe a’as, liu-liu inflasaun dubru-díjitu, sei hamosu konsekuênsias negativas ba dezenvolvimentu sósiu-ekonómiku nasaun ida nian. Fásil tebes atu identifika causas do inflação, maibe defísil tebes atu buka solusaun ba inflasaun ne’e rasik tamba ida ne’e rekere aproximação integrada ne’ebé involve parte hotu-hotu no liu-liu presiza tempu naruk no displina hodi rezolve problema inflasaun ne’e rasik.

Taur Matan Ruak – “Xanana Foun” Timor-Leste

Taur Matan Ruak – “Xanana Foun” Timor-Leste

Cosme da Costa Araujo

Iha ailaran ami dehan Xanana ba tiha komarka,

Xanana foun mosu mai.

Agora mós hanesan Xanana katuas rezigna-a’an,

Xanana foun mosu mai.

(Jeneral Lere Anan Timur)

Xanana deklara rezigna-a’an - ita nia maun bo’ot Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, eis gerileiru, lider karismátiku no atual Primeiru Ministru, durante debate públiku ida iha loron 11 Novembru 2013, iha Centro Convenção de Dili, liu husi transmisaun direita (rádio no televizaun) ba povu tomak iha teritóriu Timor-Leste, foti desizaun ida nebe’e halo ita hotu hakfodak, katak nia sei rezigna-a’an husi ninia kargu hanesan primeiru ministru iha 2015. Ikus-ikus ne’e, Xanana rasik dehan nia sei rezigna-a’an iha tinan ida ne’e nia rohan, Setembru 2014. Tuir Xanana, desizaun ida ne’e irreversível katak sei la muda tan ona.  Hahú husi nebá, ita hotu komesa preokupa no husu ba malu; primeiru - tamba sá Xanana rezigna-a’an?, no segundu no importante liu - sé lós maka sei troka Xanana?

 Tamba sá Xanana rezigna-a’an? - hatán ba pergunta ida ne’e, Xanana rasik dehan nia rezigna-a’an hodi fo tempu no fiar ba jerasaun foun hodi kaer ukun no kontinua estafeta luta naruk ba dezenvolvimentu nasional. Tenik tan Xanana, jerasaun tuan sei la deskansa, maibe dezempenha fali funsaun ida diferente hodi tau matan ba asuntu importante seluk (hanesan desentralizaun, dezenvolvimentu integradu no sst).

Hatán ba pergunta hanesan, ita hetan mós respostas oin seluk. Balun dehan  Xanana rezigna-a’an tamba nia kolen. Hau interpreta liafuan “kolen” ne’e ba buat rua. Primeiru, Xanana kolen fízikamente no psikolojikamente. Xanana serví nasaun ida ne’e iha tinan barak nia laran. Durante tinan 24 nia laran, Xanana pasa tempu barak iha ailaran no kadeia hodi halo funu, hanoin, no planea estratéjia ba funu hodi libertar a pátria. Hafoin ukun rasik a’an, Xanana mós kontinua hanoin, planeia, no implementa planu estratéjiku ba dezenvolivmentu nasional hodi libertar o povo. Buat hirak ne’e hotu halo nia fízikamente no psikolojikamente kolen. Ho tan nia idade nebe’e aumenta, nia kolen duni.

Segundu, liafuan kolen hanesan metáfora ou soe-lia ou sindiran ida ba servisus membrus governu nian hirak nebe’e, tuir hau nia haré, la tuir planu ou lao sabraut, nune’e la atinji objetivu determinadu. Tuir Vicente Maubosy, membrus governu laiha efisiensia, laiha produtividade no outputs mínimu. Membrus governu sira, hanesan Mari Alkatiri dehan, preokupa liu maka kompete hodi buka protagonismo no imajen hanesan estrelas ou bintang iha TVTL. Pior liu maka ministrus balun ema diskonfia koruptu, hadau malu servisu ou la hatene halo saida lós, prátika hahalok imorál – baku fe’en, iha fe’en barak, selingkuh tiha pois foto tan no sst. Tan ne’e, tuir Maubosy, buat hirak ne’e hotu halo Xanana triste, hirus no frustasi. Xanana kolen ona ho nia membrus sira.

 Iha mós espekulasaun seluk nebe’e mosu, liu-liu husi Mario Carasscalão, katak Xanana rezigna-a’an hodi hadiak kondisaun hafoin nia aparecer em grade hodi implementa ninia mehi – libertar o povo – nebe’e fo-sai iha planu estratéjiku dezenvolvimentu nasional. Tuir Mario, Xanana ninia mehi hirak ne’e – criar uma sociedade mais justa – to’o agora seidauk implementa tuir nia hakarak. Xanana sei la desaparecer completamente de cena, maibe sei fila fali mai, em outras formas de intervenção, hodi finaliza buat hotu nebe’e nia hahú tiha ona, maibe seidauk remata.  

             Sé lós maka sei troka Xanana? – ema barak liu-liu analista sira, media (nasional no internasional), desde Xanana deklara rezigna-a’an, komesa sik-tun-sae no fo-sai sira nia prediksaun konaba sé lós maka sei troka Xanana.  Balun temin Agio Pereira, Deonisio Babo Soares, Bendito Freitas, Fernando Lasama, Jose Luis Guterres, no mos Dr. Rui Araujo hanesan kandidatu forte hodi troka Xanana. Tuir sira, figuras hirak ne’e maka iha potensialidade hodi troka Xanana hanesan primeiru ministru. Maibe Agio Pereira rasik dehan wainhira nia husu pergunta hanesan, Maun Bo’ot hatan katak – pergunta ne’e sala. Pergunta lolós maka Timor-Leste bele prodús Xanana hira? Liga ba Jeneral Lere nia lia husu karik – Xanana foun hira maka bele mosu mai hodi troka Xanana katuas. 

 

Hamosu Xanana foun? – husi diskusaun hirak nebe’e ita iha to’o ohin loron, ita haré no preokupa liu ba lideres hirak nebe’e sei troka Xanana hanesan primeiru ministru. Ho liafuan seluk, ita preokupa ho pergunta sala. Ita preokupa liu ba pozisaun primeiru ministru nebe’e sei mamuk ou vácuo iha tempu badak ne’e nia laran. Ita seidauk fo resposta diak ida ba Jeneral Lere nia lia-husu hamosu Xanana foun. Liafaun Xanana foun, tuir hau nia interpretasaun, signifika Xanana as the whole package ou Xanana hanesan pakote ida.  Xanana-primeiru ministru ne’e hanesan parte integrante ida husi Xanana pakote ida. Tamba ne’e iha figura barak nebe’e iha potensialidade hodi troka Xanana-primeiru ministru, maibe susar tebes atu hetan figura ida hodi troka Xanana hanesan pakote ida kompletu. Ida ne’e maka Jeneral Lere nia hakarak - hamosu Xanana foun nebe’e transende Xanana-primeiru ministru.

Taur Matan Ruak - Xanana Foun Timor-Leste - durante ne’e wainhira koalia konaba papél jerasaun tuan iha prosesu transferênsia lideransa ba jerasaun foun, maun bo’ot Xanana sempre temin ami nain ha’at, iha nebe’e nia refere ba Ramos Horta, Mari Alkatiri, Lu-Olo no nia a’an rasik. Nune’e mos Ramos Horta, wainhira koalia konaba jerasaun tuan, nia temin –Xanana Gusmão, Mari Alkatiri, Lu-Olo, Jeneral Lere no nia a’an rasik. Lideres nain rua ne’e no sira seluk (intensionalmente ou lae) la temin Taur Matan Ruak hanesan jerasaun tuan. Sé nune’e tamba sá ema la temin Matan Ruak hanesan jerasaun foun? Hatan ba pergunta ida ne’e, ita hetan respostas rua. Primeiru, pozisaun atual Matan Ruak hanesan prezidente repúblika maka ekslui tiha nia husi diskusaun durante ne’e. Segundu, durante ne’e ema haré liu ba figura ida nebe’e sei troka Xanana-primeiru ministru iha tempu badak nia laran. Ema haluhan tiha haré ba oin, ba tempu naruk. Wainhira koalia konaba futuros líderes nebe’e iha potensialidade hodi troka Xanana hanesan pokote ida maka hau fiar no ema hotu sei konkorda katak Matan Ruak nia naran mos sei tama iha diskusaun nia laran.

 

Tamba sá Taur Matan Ruak maka ita nia Xanana Foun? – argumentu prinsipál husi artigu ida ne’e maka Taur Matan Ruak maka Xanana Foun Timor-Leste. Tuir mai ne’e razaun hirak nebe’e (no sei barak tan) nebe’e hau foti hodi suporta hau nia argumentu. 

Matan Ruak Hadomi Nasaun Timor – Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, hadomi tebes nasaun Timor. Ida ne’e hatudu liu husi nia luta naruk durante tinan 24 nia laran (iha ailaran) hodi defende prinsípiu ukun rasik a’an. Hanesan ho Xanana, nia husik buat hotu; familia, riku-soin, no moris diak sira seluk, hodi moris terus iha ailaran hodi fo a’an tomak - patria ou morte - ba nasaun ida ne’e. Matan Ruak hatudu nia domin ba nasaun ida ne’e hodi hamutuk ho povo fakar ran ba ukun rasik a’an.

Matan Ruak hadomi povu Timor – Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, hadomi tebes povu Timor. Haré ba povo Timor nebe’e terus iha tempu kolonialismu no liu-liu tempu okupasaun estranjeira, halo nia fo a’an tomak dedika deit ba misaun ida – libertar o povo. Hafoin hetan tiha ukun a’an, Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, la tu’ur hakmatek deit, maibe kontinua fali funu ida seluk nebe’e todan liu, funu ba dezenvolivmentu nasional hodi liberta povu husi kiak no mukit, ba sosiedade ida justa iha nebe’e ema hotu, laos ida rua deit, goja ukun rasik a’an ida ne’e. Matan Ruak husik nia pozisaun diak hodi ba hamutuk ho povu hisik kosar ba moris diak.  

Matan Ruak, nune’e mós Xanana, hahú ninia servisu hanesan presidente repúblika hodi vizita povu sira iha áreas remotas hodi agradese ba sira nebe’e tulun nia durante funu iha ailaran no mós rona sira nia halerik. Matan Ruak, nune’e mós Xanana iha 2002-2006, senti katak agora ne’e nia labele halo buat ida ba povu nia halerik no buat a’at sira nebe’e nia haré no la gosta, maibe nia sei fila fali mai hanesan Xanana Foun hodi hamutuk dala ida tan ho povu hisik kosar ba moris diak. Matan Ruak rasik dehan independensia seidauk kompletu no funu ba prosperiedade sei todan liu funu ida uluk, tamba ne’e nia sei fila fali mai hanesan Xanana Foun hamutuk ho povu hodi inspira sira kontinua nafatin ispíritu funu ida uluk ba iha prosesu dezenvolvimentu nasional. 

Matan Ruak hakuak ema hotu. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, nuda’ar kandidatu independente nebe’e hetan suporta husi ema hotu wainhira kandidata a’an ba prezidente repúblika. Matan Ruak hakuak no hetan fiar husi ema hotu – veteranus, klandestina no liu-liu povu Timor oan hotu. Hanesan Fidelis Magelhaës rasik dehan povu haré Matan Ruak hanesan sira nian rasik. Liafuan sira nian rasik signifika katak povu konsidera Matan Ruak mai husi sira, hamutuk ho sira, no sei fila fali hodi serví sira.  Nune’e Matan Ruak, hafoin Xanana, maka figura ida nebe’e bele halibur forsas polítika hotu. Hanesan Xanana dehan hamutuk ita bele, Matan Ruak mós nune’e – hamutuk ita bele halo Timor-Leste nakfilak ba nasaun ida prósperu, forte no seguru. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, bele sai símbolu unidade nasional.  

Matan Ruak simples, haraik a’an no iha integridade a’as. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, ema ida simples, fasil atu hasoru, la formal liu, koalia no halimar ho ema hotu no la foti a’an. Matan Ruak iha integridade nebe’e a’as. Úniku lider nebe’e publika nia riku-soin ba povu tomak hodi haré. Hahalok ida ne’e simplesmente hatudu katak nia iha duni komitimentu hodi funu hasoru prátika korupasaun. Iha ninia vida familiar, Matan Ruak lao tuir lolós lalaok familia nazaré. Iha tempu agora nebe’e moral iha uma laran komesa naksobu (divorsiu a’as, fen barak, selingkuh, esploitasaun ba feto), Timor presiza lider hanesan Matan Ruak hodi fo inspirasaun no ijemplu ba nasaun ida ne’e, nebe’e agora daudaun atravesa hela fenómena degradasaun moral.  

Matan Ruak fo prémiu ba buat diak no kastigu buat nebe’e a’at. Diferensia entre Matan Ruak ho Xanana maka, Xanana hadomi liu povu Timor tamba ne’e maske ema halo salan nia tanis no perdua deit sira. Matan Ruak oin seluk, nia hahí ou louva buat nebe’e diak, maibe nia kritika buat nebe’e a’at. Ijemplu nia kritika funsiunáriu sira nebe’e servisu baruk ten, husu governu labele fo projeitu ba veteranus sira, lamenta uma MDGs nebe’e laiha kualidade, sujere kriminaliza kompanias nebe’e halo projeitu laiha kualidade no sst. Matan Ruak hatene lolós karakter Timor nian, nebe’e kuandu ita halimar ho sira, sira sae fali ita nia ulun.  Timor presiza lider hanesan Matan Ruak. Lider ida nebe’e tenki koalia maka’as, fo sansaun, la tolera sala sira, no fo prémiu no hahí ba buat sira nebe’e diak.  

Matan Ruak iha vizaun no planu klaru ba Timor-Leste. Hanesan Xanana ho ninia Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasional, Matan Ruak mós iha vizaun ida klaru ba Timor-Leste. Nia hakarak Timor ida forte, prósperu no seguru. Matan Ruak hakarak Timor-Leste la depende ba mina no gas, tamba nia fiar osan husi mina no gas halo ema sai baruk. Atu atinji objetivu ida ne’e, Matan Ruak fo prioridades ba dezenvolvimentu iha área produtivu, hasae kualidade edukasaun, harí infraestruras bázikas, hametin no habelar direitus ba rai, harí no hadiak boa governasaun, implementa desentralizasaun hodi lori dezenvolvimentu ba áreas rurais, no hametin justisa sosial. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, iha mehi ida klaru atu lori Timor-Leste ba nebe’e. Matan Ruak iha ona hanoin, planu oinsa dezenvolve Timor hodi sai Timor ida forte, prósperu no seguru. 

Matan Ruak bele fasilita “uma transição suave de liderança”. Iha prosesu transferensia lideransa, ita presiza middleman ida hodi fasilita tranzisaun lideransa diak husi jerasaun tuan ba jerasaun foun. Haré ba jerasaun foun barak nebe’e seidauk preparadu em termos esperiensia, matenek, no liu-liu mentalidade (tamba ema barak haré jerasaun foun hanoin sira nia a’an deit hodi buka riku no sst), maka ita presiza duni figura hanesan Matan Ruak hodi fasilita prosesu ida ne’e lao ho diak. Timor presiza lider hanesan Matan Ruak atu prepara didiak jerasaun foun, hadiak sira mentalidade, haklean sira nia esperiensia no matenek, hametin sira nia ispíritu hodi serví povu laos sira a’an, hafoin maka bele fo responsabilidade ba sira.  

Hanesan Raul Lemos no feto foun Timor-Leste Krisdayanti dehan sosok Xanana Gusmão dan Taur Matan Ruak masih sangat dibutuhkan rakyat Timor-Leste (povu Timor-Leste sei presiza tebes nafatin figura hanesan Xanana Gusmão no Taur Matan Ruak). Liafuan sangat hatudu hakaran ida bo’ot husi povu Timor ba lider rua ne’e ninia envolvimentu iha prosesu tomak Timor-Leste nian. Matan Ruak hatudu ona katak nia (1) hadomi tebes nasaun no povu Timor, (2) hakuak ema hotu, (3) simples, haraik a’an no iha integridade a’as, (4) hahí buat diak no kastigu buat a’at, (5) iha vizaun no planu klaru ba Timor no (6) bele fasilita tranzisaun diak ba prosesu transferensia lideransa no sst.  Ho razaun hirak ne’e no sira seluk tan maka hau haré no ema hotu sei konkorda katak Taur Matan Ruak maka Xanana Foun Timor-Leste nian.

Uluk iha ailaran Xanana ba tiha komarka, Matan Ruak mosu mai, agora mós hanesan Xanana katuas rezigna-a’an, Matan Ruak mosu mai hamutuk ho povu dalan ida tan hisik kosar ba luta naruk hodi “libertar o povo” ba Timor-Leste ida forte, prósperu no seguru.

 

The Ministry of Finance organized a series of information sessions on the role of Petroleum Fund in the national development process

Dili – The Petroleum Fund Administration Unit (PFAU) of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) organized a series of information sessions on the Role of Petroleum Fund in the National Development Process. The first session was held on the 3^rd of August 2013 at the Ministry of Finance Knowledge Centre and was attended by members of the V Constitutional Government. The second session was on the 5^th of August 2013 for representatives of civil society and university students. The third session was on the 7^th of August 2013 attended by General Directors and National Directors of the public service.

The main objective of these information sessions were to share with the participants the important role played by the Petroleum Fund in the Timor-Leste national development process. Three main topics were discussed; (1) update on the Petroleum Fund investment strategy, and (2) update on the Petroleum Fund investment performance, and (3) introduction to the benefits framework analysis.

Ms. Emilia Pires, Minister of Finance, in her brief intervention, drew the participants’ attention to the significant dependence of the state on the nation’s petroleum resource. Revenue from the petroleum sector supports 90% of the state budget. She further added that all public promises that are made should take into consideration the forecasted future costs and the sustainability of financing. In response to this concern, she informed the participants that the Ministry of Finance is in the process of conducting a comprehensive benefit framework analysis to look at the costing of all public promises that have been made by the government.

Mr. Cosme da Costa Araujo, a staff in the Ministry of Finance, started the first presentation with a slide highlighting that the objective of having a Petroleum Fund is to benefit both current and future generations of Timorese. This objective was established in the preamble of the Petroleum Fund Law. He further stated that the Petroleum Fund can benefit Timorese in two ways. Petroleum revenues are spent and invested domestically through the annual state budget process, of which money are allocated to pay for goods and services, social transfers, and also to invest in physical infrastructures and capacity development. Spending and investing domestically benefit the current, but also future generation of Timorese. Meanwhile unspent petroleum revenues are invested in financial instruments located abroad. Investment in financial instruments generates additional financial return that provides opportunities for future generations to spend on their priorities and needs.

On investment strategy, Sr. Cosme reminded the participants that the fundamental reason for changing the Petroleum Fund Law, which was approved in 2011, was to diversify the Petroleum Fund investment to enable the alignment between the investment policy and fiscal policy. In other words, as he further explained, with the new strategy of 60% investment in bonds, and 40% in equities, there would be a reasonable probability that in long-run, the Fund could achieve a real return of 3%, which is matched to the 3% ESI (Estimated Sustainable Income), the guideline for annual transfers to the state budget.

With regard to petroleum investment evolution, Mr. Cosme updated the participants that as of the end of 2012, 74% of the Fund’s assets were invested in the United States Government Bonds and 26% were invested in developed market equities. The Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Government, decided to continue to increase the equities exposure to 40%. This targeted exposure is planned to be achieved by the end of June 2014. In addition, the Fund will diversify 10% of its bond portfolio to international sovereign bonds ex-US.

In relation to the investment process, Sr. Cosme made an important comment, which was that investing is complex and involves detailed and comprehensive analysis. Financial investing is a long-term and systematic process that requires clear objectives and discipline. Ad-hoc decisions are unlikely to pay off over time. In addition, any investment decision should balance four important factors (1) speed, (2) ability, (3) quality and (4) cost.

In the second presentation, Mr. Peter Ryan-Kane, from Towers Watson, an external advisor to the Ministry of Finance on the Petroleum Fund, mentioned that since the inception, the Fund’s annual investment return has been positive. But he also reminded the participants that this reality will not hold permanently, meaning that the Fund may see some negative returns in the years to come. But he reassured them that as long-term investor, short-term fluctuations in value are less important, because these are the risks that the Fund is willing to take in order to gain a higher return in the long-run.

Mr. Peter also explained that there are three key risks that the Fund faces. The first is the risk that the Fund earns less than 3% return. Therefore, to manage this risk he suggested continuing to develop the investment strategy. The second risk is reputation risk. Therefore, to mitigate this risk, he emphasized the need for a strong governance standard, using a sound international investment process, having a formal process for considering proposals from third parties, and formal sign off procedures. The third risk is the risk of losing money. The strategy to manage this is by spreading the investments across multiple asset types, countries, currencies, and managers, and using custodian bank and external fund managers wisely.

In his last presentation, Mr. Peter talked about the relationship between the budget process, sources of funding and promises. He stated that all the promises that we make today will have implication on the future costs. He said that some budget items have a current cost, but do not contain a future promise, for example health, education and security. Other budget items have both a current and future cost, for example payments for veterans. Some items have only a future costs, for example pensions promised to civil service when they retire. Therefore, he suggested that the costs of these promises should be quantified and their implication on future costing should be considered. In response to this concern, Mr. Peter reiterated Minister’s early statement that the Ministry of Finance is going to conduct a benefit framework analysis to look into the costs of all promises made by the government.

The information sessions were concluded with Mr. Cosme reminding the participants of the important role played by the Petroleum Fund in the Timor-Leste national development process. By participating in these sessions, it was hoped that the participants can contribute, directly or indirectly through their day-to-day work, to ensure that the nation’s petroleum wealth is managed and spent in a way that brings the most benefit to both current and future generations of Timorese.

 

source:https://www.mof.gov.tl/the-ministry-of-finance-organized-a-series-of-information-sessions-on-the-role-of-petroleum-fund-in-the-national-development-process/?lang=en

 

2012 Asian Investment Summit

http://www.asianinvestmentsummit.com/gallery/2012-asian-investment-summit

Asian asset owners talk allocation issues

Click on the following link for a complete access to the article

http://www.asianinvestor.net/News/303321,asian-asset-owners-talk-allocation-issues.aspx

Timor-Leste central government approach towards sustainability of petroleum revenues.

by Cosme da Costa Araujo

This research seeks to given an understanding of and answers to the question of how does Timor-Leste central government approach sustainability with respect to its petroleum revenues. In the context of Timor-Leste, sustainability is often associated with inter-generational equity and the avoidance of resource curse. Institutional theory and MCS package are two theoretical frameworks to help building the understanding of how Timor-Leste government approaches sustainability.

The empirical findings show that the institutionalized practices that government has adopted and implemented are influenced by the internal and external factors which taken place through coercive, mimetic and normative pressure. Timor-Leste reliance on petroleum revenues, the uncertainties associated with petroleum activities, the mandatory financial reserved put forward by the Constitution, learning from the mistake of resource curse and the success story of Norwegian model and with the help of IMF and other organizations and experts; all these factors influence Timor-Leste to institutionalizes the followings approaches; establishing Petroleum Fund Law and Petroleum Fund, investing the Fund in financial market and non-oil sector i.e. education, health, infrastructure and agriculture.

 

All these aforementioned institutionalized practices are argued to help Timor-Leste to achieve sustainability of petroleum revenues and hence the avoidance of resource curses. The evidence also shows the importance of reporting mechanisms i.e. budget and financial reports as management control tools to direct efforts towards the goal and to hold government accountable by measuring its performance. Budget is the most important of all prevailing controlling mechanisms. In doing so, it functions as planning and controlling mechanism. However, the effective of these reports are remained to be seen and is not covered in this research. This is what further research in Timor-Leste approach towards sustainability can be dealt with. A comparative study between Timor-Leste and Norway is also recommended for future research to look at.

Click on the following link to access the full document.

http://brage.bibsys.no/hibo/bitstream/URN:NBN:no-bibsys_brage_18596/1/Da_Costa_Araujo_Cosme.pdf

 

Relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) ho estudante: buat ida normál iha Timor-Leste?

Cosme da Costa Araujo

 

Iha loron hirak liu ba ne’e, no até agora, ita rona ema koalia ou gosip, ita haré iha faceebook no lê iha blogs (hanesan-timorhauniadoben), no jornal sira, nebe’e diskonfia akontese aktu inapropriadu entre mestre ida ho ninia estudante. Iha tinan ida ne’e nia laran deit ita akompania akontesimentu hanesan aman “fo oan” ba nia oan rasik, germo nebe’e hetan kastigu tamba fasilita feto-ran ida ho “katuas riku”.

Ita hotu lamenta ba hahalok a’at hirak hanesan ne’e. Hahalok hirak nebe’e laos bai-bain, sa-tan halo husi ema hirak nebe’e mos laos bai-bain hanesan mestre(a). Hahalok hanesan ne’e laos maka foin akontese, maibe akontese dala barak tiha ona iha tipu oi-oin no sei akontese nafatin, sé kuandu ita hotu ho konsientemente husik deit hahalok a’at no lamentável hirak ne’e akontese nafatin.

 Husi reasaun oi-oin nebe’e ita hetan, hatudu momós katak ita hotu despreza, la-gosta, no lamenta hahalok a’at hirak ne’e. Hau só hakfodak no surpriendidu maka laiha reasaun ruma husi autoridades kompetentes hanesan Ministériu Edukasaun, Pais do Alunos, no Komisaun ba Labarik, PNTL no ulun konfisoens relijiozas sira. Keta halo ba sira hanoin buat a’at hirak hanesan ne’e “bai-bain tiha ona”, “biasa tiha deit”, ou “toman tiha ona”. Tamba ne’e sira “la-pusing”, hatene mas halo finji la hatene. Sé ita hanoin nune’e ou ita la foti medidas ruma forte hodi rezolve buat hirak ne’e, hau la hatene morál nasaun ida ne’e atu lao ba nebe’e lós. Ita kuda hela fini a’at ba ita oan no bei-oan sira katak hahalok a’at hirak hanesan ne’e “normal” iha Timor-Leste.

 Relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) no estudante konsidera hanesan hahalok a’at tamba: Primeiru – mestre(a) nuda’ar “edukadór” ba alunu sira, laos deit iha materia eskolár nian – matemátika, fízika no sst, maibe mos iha dezenvolvimentu étika, morál, mentál ou psikik estudante nian. Nuda’ar edukadór, mestre(a) tenki ser sai hanesan “role model”, liu husi nia liafuan no hahalok. Role model ba nia estudante sira no mos nia kolegas mestre(a) sira seluk. Iha prosesu dezenvolvimentu, estudante sira sempre buka ema ida sai hanesan sira nia role model hodi fo dalan ba sira iha tempu ida nebe’e sira foin hasoru buat barak iha sira nia moris. Hanesan “role model” labele iha tohik ruma iha mestre(a) ninia personalidade liu-liu koalia no hahalok. Mestre(a) nia hahalok tenki ser hanesan ou han malu ho ninia koalia. Edukadór nebe’e diak sei hamosu mos estudante no foinsae nebe’e diak no vice-versa. Nune’e mos mestre(a) sai hanesan “aman ou inan” ou “orang-tua” ba estudantes iha eskola. Hanesan aman no inan sira sempre hanoin no halo buat nebe’e diak ba nia oan sira, laos “apro” fali sira.

 Sigundu – relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) no estudante hanesan ho relasaun “ema bo’ot” ho “menór”. Ita nia lei rasik, liu-liu ita nia Kódiku Penál la permite no kriminaliza relasaun entre “ema bo’ot” ho “menór”. No maske estudante ne’e  tinan 18 ba leten no parte rua maka hakarak ou “mau sama mau” hodi halo relasaun  ne’e, maibe tamba iha enviromentu relasaun entre mestre(a) ho estudante, hahalok hanesan ne’e kategoriza inapropriadu nafatin. Hanesan kazu famozu ida akontese iha Estadus Unidus Ámerika, Sra. Amy McElhenney nebe’e hanorin iha Hebron High School, nia hetan kastigu tamba nia halo “relasaun inapropriadu” ho ninia estudante, maske estudante refere iha ona tinan 18 (iha EUA tinan 17 maka tinan legál konsiente ba relasaun seksual).

 Mestre(a), ho pozisaun, autoridade, no atributu sira seluk, bele direita ou indireita psikolojikamente influensia estudante hodi submete ou “submissive” ba mestre(a) nia hakaran. Wainhira estudante ida senti konfortável ou toman ou “nyaman” ona ho mestre(a) ida, psikolojikamente nia prontu (tamba seidauk hanoin ho rasionál) atu halo buat saida deit maka mestre(a) hakaran. Apalagi estudante sira nebe’e ladún iha domin husi aman-inan ou “broken home”, sira ne’e vulnerável liu. Iha tempu ida hanesan ne’e mestre(a) labele aproveita fali estudante nia fiar ou “kenyamanan” ou vulnerabilidade ba ninia interese pesoál. Sé iha provas nune’e duni, entaun ida ne’e tama ona iha “hahalok ho intensaun” atu halo “manipulasaun”, no ita Kódiku Penál kondena hahalok hanesan ne’e.

 Relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) no estudante LAOS hahalok ida normál. Pelo contrario, ita bele dehan hahalok abnormál, nebe’e ita hotu lamenta. Se mestre(a) sai ona ameasa ba ita nia oan sira, se tan maka ita bele fiar?. Ita hotu, liu-liu parte kompetentes, labele taka matan, no la bele halo finji la hatene, se lae ita husi buat hirak ne’e sai tiha normál iha ita nia rai doben Timor-Leste. Se ita la hahú ohin, bainhira tan, se laos ita, se tan.