Eleisaun Prezidensial: entre “a vitória é certa” e “uma surpresa inesperada”

Eleisaun Prezidensial

Entre “a vitória é certa” e “uma surpresa inesperada”

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

Ita sei selebra festa de democracia bo’ot rua – eleisaun prezidensial no eleisaun parlamentar. Iha festa bo’ot rua ne’e ita sei dahur, dansa, “tangan diatas”, ha’an no hemu grátis to’o bele hetan mós mina gratuita ba motor no kareta. Ba eleisaun prezidensial, ita iha ona figuras importantes walu ne’ebé maka sei konkore ba kargu importante - Presidente da República. Husi kandidatu hirak ne’e, sira ne’ebé hau-atan konsidera atu hetan votus barak iha eleisaun prezidensial maka Lu-Olo, Kalohan, Lugu no Sama-Larua.

Ba Lu-Olo: “a vitória é certa”

Iha eleisaun prezidensial rua liu ba (2007 & 2012), maske la manan ho votus maioria, Lu-Olo sempre sai kandidatu ho votus barak liu. Nia mós kontinua asegura númeru de vontantes ida estável no sólidu mais ou menus 30%. Nune’e, atu manan iha primeira ronda iha eleisaun ba tinan ida ne’e, Lu-Olo presiza tan votus 20+1%.

Maun bo’ot Xanana nia suporta sempre lori kandidatu ida ba manán iha eleisaun. Kazu konkretu maka iha tinan 2007 & 2012, iha ne’ebé ninia pezu polítiku no karizma konsege dudu José Ramos Horta (JRH) no Taur Matan Ruak (TMR) hodi manan eleisaun no sai prezidente repúblika. Ho esperiénsia ida ne’e, ema barak haré katak ho suporta másima husi maun bo’ot Xanana ba Lu-Olo no ho konjuntura polítika foun entre CNRT no FRETILIN, Lu-Olo sei manan kedan iha primeira ronda. Sé ita uza analojia futebol karik, ho avansadu ida (Lu-Olo) ne’ebé nia performance estável iha époka rua tu-tuir malu (2007 & 2012), ho médiu ida ne’ebé diak (FRETILIN+Xanana) sei lori Lu-Olo ba vitória. Ema hotu hateten no fiar katak Lu-Olo maka sei manan iha eleisaun prezidensial iha tinan 2017. Nune’e, ba Lu-Olo – “a vitória é certa”.

Sé Lu-Olo manán, nia maka sei sai nuda’ar ema primeiru iha tempu ukun-rasik-an hodi invalida tiha mítu de “José”, katak ema sira sai prezidente ne’e tenki mai ho naran primeiru “José”, hanesan sira uluk – José Kayrala Xanana Gusmao, José Ramos Horta, no José Maria Vasconcelos (TMR).

Ba Lu-Olo: no pain, no gain

“A vitória certa” de Lu-Olo ijiji servisu maka’as husi ema hotu-hotu. Ho votus 30% garantidus, atu hetan hetan tan 20+1% laos buat ida fásil. Prezensa maun bo’ot Xanana nian iha Aitarak Laran hamutuk ho Lu-Olo no ninia desklarasaun públika hodi fó suporta Lu-Olo seidauk nato’on. Hanesan Cesar Moreira observa “sei iha segunda ronda. Mesmu Lu-Olo mai husi partidu bo’ot FRETILIN no hetan tan apoiu husi líder sentral Kayrala Xanana Gusmão kandidatu nain 8 ne’e sei fahe votus husi votantes 700,000-resin ne’e”.

Votus sira ne’ebé uluk maun bo’ot Xanana konsege hetan hodi suporta JRH no TMR ne’e mai husi militantes Partidu Demokrátiku, Frenti Mundansa, no swinging votes sira seluk, ne’ebé sira rasik mós sei fo ba sira idak-idak ninia kandidatu. FRETILIN no maun bo’ot Xanana presiza direitamente no ativamente servisu maka’as liu tan. FRETILIN presiza mós muda ninia estratéjia kampañia hodi hakuak ema hotu no hadau ema seluk laos FRETILIN ninia simpatia. Husik ona retórika tuan “imi” vs “ami”. Hahú ona uza liu liafuan konsilatória no kontrola ninia elementus militantes no “rombongan makan gratis” sira ne’ebé bele hafoer imajen kandidatu no partidu nian durante tempu kampaña. Ho Lu-Olo nia pontu forte hanesan ema rezisténsia durante tinan 24 iha ailaran no esperiénsia de lideransa hanesan Presidente do Parlamento Nacional bele atrai votus husi ema seluk la’os FRETILIN. Sentimentu simpatia ida ne’e refleta iha konversa ho ema bain-bain sira hanesan ha’un nia-inan rasik ne’ebé dehan “Lu-Olo mós terus. Nia merese atu sai mós Prezidente”. Ho esforsu maka’as hirak ne’e hotu, ha’u-atan fiar katak iha primeira ronda “a vitóra é certa” ba duni Lu-Olo. Mas vitória ida ne’e ejiji servisu maka’as husi ema hotu. Nune’e, ba Lu-Olo - no pain, no gain.

“Kalohan”- uma surpresa inesperada

Ho númeru kandidatu hamutuk na’in wulu keda’an, ho total votantes hamutuk 700,000-resin deit, iha posibilidade katak sei la iha kandidatu ida manan ho maioria tamba votus sira sei nakfahe tiha kandidatu hirak ne’e. Ho nune’e sei iha posibilidade, maske ki’ik, atu iha eleisaun ba segunda volta.

Sé iha duni eleisaun segunda volta, posibilidade atu kandidatu seluk halakon Lu-Olo ki’ik teb-tebes. Maske ninia probabilidade atu akontese ne’e ki’ik, maibé sé akontese duni - uma surpresa inesperada ida ne’e - sei fo impaktu bo’ot ba Lu-Olo. Ida ne’e maka tail risk ne’eb’e Lu-Olo sei hasoru iha segunda volta. Kalohan, aproveita légasi saudozu La-Sama nian no suporta husi PD, sei haka’as-an atu lobi no hetan suporta husi kandidatu sira seluk inkluindu FM no jerasaun foun sira nian hodi lori nia ba manan iha eleisaun segunda volta. Ita la bele subestima ita nia adversáriu polítiku biar nia ki’ik ba nusá mós. Hanesan iha jogu futebol, maske hasoru ekipa bo’ot ho avansadu no médiu diak, maibé Kalohan bele halo kontra-atake surpreza ida ne’ebé ita la espera hodi bele manan tiha jogu iha segunda ronde. Nune’e, hau-atan hanoin Kalohan bele fó ameasa bo’ot ba Lu-Olo nia loron-diak iha eleisaun segunda ronda. Kalohan iha posibilidade, maske ki’ik, atu haksoit hodi okupa fatin iha leten-as ba – Presidente da Républica.

Hodi konklui hau dehan nune’e - eleisaun prezidesial iha tinan 2017 sai nuda’ar “uma vitória certa” ba Lu-Olo. Maibé vitória ida ne’e sei ejiji servisu maka’as husi ema hotu-hotu. Ho votus ne’ebé nakfahe tiha ba kondaditu nain 7 seluk, iha posibilidade atu iha eleisaun segunda volta. Sé ida ne’e akontese duni, Lu-Olo sei hasoru tail risk – uma surpresa inesperada – husi Kalohan. Maske nia posibilidade atu akontese ki’ik teb-tebes, maibé sé karik akontese duni, sei fó impaktu bo’ot ba Lu-Olo nia chance atu sai Presidente da República.

*Artigu ida ne’e opiniaun pesoal autor nian. Bele haré mós iha www.timorbele.blogspot.com

Maun Xanana nia karta aberta ba Emília Pires

Maun Xanana nia karta aberta ba Emília Pires 

(tradusaun husi versaun orijinal Portugues)

Querida Amiga

Hau hatene katak o liu hela momentu susar-liu… iha o nia vida! O hatene liu katak hau la dun kompriende lei, tanba bainhira hau iha ailaran, hau la konsege, hanesan akontese ho respeitozus timoroan balun, hasai kursu direitu iha estranjeiru no, liu-liu iha Indonezia, sira ikus ne’e mak oin loron nakonu iha PODEROZU sistema judisiariu.

O hatene, Emilia, hau admira ema sira ne’e! Sira la kompriende portugés maibe julga tuir lei ho lian portugés no asina akordaun ne’ebé sira rasik la kompriende saida mak hakerek iha laran. Hau lembra bainhira hau ba halo depoimentu iha Tribunal, hau hasoru juiz perpleksu ida tanba nia la kompriende artigu ida mak hau lee hela, artigu kona-ba Lei Aprovizionamentu, no nia haruka hau nonok dala rua.  

Maibé, ida ne’e la’os motivu hodi hau hakerek surat ida ne’e. 

Saida mak hau halo mos la’os tentativa ida hodi hamenus pressaun todan maka monu ba o nia kabas, ne’ebé fraku tanba o nia defesiensia iha o nia ain.  Hau nia intensaun atu haree deit ba kotuk, hodi nune’e o nunka bele haluha o nia papel importante iha prosesu Hari ita nia Estadu, ne’ebé sei frajil hela.  No, ema sira ne’ebé hau haree iha julgamentu laran, o nia akuzador sira, hau nota katak ema balun ne’ebe tur iha ne’eba, nunka defende ita nia paíz nia ukun aan.  Oinsá tempu ne’e muda, ne ka, Emilia? 

Sira ne’ebe oin akompaña ka akompaña hau uluk, iha IV no V Governu, ema bolu sira xananistas, no hetan hotu akuzasaun hanesan koruptor, hodi halo deit kontente ema sira ne’e nia ‘ganansia’! O hatene tanba sá?  Tanba hau hanesan Soeharto Timor-Leste nian!  No imi hotu hetan influensia ka kumpre hau nia ideologia koruptu... No balun fo ona ‘parabéns’ ba ‘pratikantes’ (kuitadu!) Justisa RDTL sira, tanba ‘tau ona’ Xanana nia ministru sira iha Tribunal! 

Membru Governu ne’ebe hau fo valor liu, iha IV Governu, ne’ebé entre sira seluk, imi nain rua, Lucia Lobato no Arcângelo. Lucia halo hotu ba hadiak kondisaun servisu no salariu sistema judisiariu no nia ajente sira nian... hetan kastigu, tanba deit ema sira ne’e nia ignoransia ka xauvinismu!

Arcângelo hetan terus presaun polítika no psikolojika... husi julgamentu ida para nada!  Salah... julgamentu ida atu prova deit inikuidade valor injustisa nian!

Se mak sei lee karta ne’e, sei ba dehan katak hau tenta defende imi!  La’os, por amor de Deus,  kestaun mak hau nia naran rasik iha ona sira nia lista... asesor Ministériu Públiku ida maka fo sai informasaun ida ne’e, no ema balun agora daudauk repete ne’e ho ibun luan! O nia akuzadora ida mak agora simu orientasaun ba foti dadus hotu kona-ba hau... no ema ne’e gaba a’an dehan katak nia maka matan-dok justisa nian. Ohin loron, sira hotu senti hanesan ne’e... poderozu, ezemplariu, sira maka loos deit, hodi fo persepsaun fantasma katak Estadu ne’e iha sira nia liman! Sira nein hatene tan katak sira la kompriende saída mak Estadu ida!!!

Hau afirma ida ne’e – sira la kompriende saida mak Estadu ida – ho kazu rua ne’ebe konkretu no aat liu: 

Ba dahuluk, bainhira hau ba fo hau nia depoimentu iha Tribunal kona-ba Komandante Polisia ida nia kazu, Polisia ne’e submeti ba rejime umillante husi pratikante Justisa sira iha Timor iha tinan barak nia laran, maibé foin dadauk deklara nudar inosente. Sira hatama nia iha prizaun tanba hetan akuzasaun kona-ba violasaun direitus umanus sidadaun indonéziu hirak ne’ebé ita kaer, bainhira UNPOL atu remata iha 2012. Sidadaun indonéziu hirak ne’e nudar trafikante droga, ne’ebe mai Dili hodi simu enkomenda mai husi Kolombia, no lori fali ba Indonézia, halo Timor-Leste hanesan pontu tranzitu ‘livre’ ba krime tranzasional ida ne’e. Tanba ita koordena servisu ho Departamentu Kontra-Droga Indonézia nian, hau haruka entrega sidadaun indonéziu sira ne’e ba Departamentu ida ne’e. Akuzasaun ne’ebe mosu maka viola ema sira ne’e nia direitus umanus, tanba la fo oportunidade ba sira hodi ezerse sira nia direitu ba defeza. (Hau hatene katak o haree hela o nia kazu, prosesu barak mak o haruka ona ba Tribunal maibe sira haruka arkiva hotu deit). Akuzasaun seluk maka dehan ita la fo oportunidade ba sira defende a’an, hanesan fali ita maka fo liberdade ba sidadaun hirak ne’e, mesmuke ita prova ona katak sira hetan julgamentu iha Indonézia no hetan kastigu. No, o hatene, Emilia, pratikantes Justisa sira iha Timor reklama tan katak sira deit maka bele defende soberania RDTL. 

Segundu kazu, ne’ebe foin dadauk, hatudu deit pratikantes Justisa sira nia konsiénsia fraku. Iha depoiamentu ida ketak, hau fo hatene katak sidadaun Koreanu ida, ne’ebe kaer pasaporte Timor, hetan dentensaun iha Indonézia no sei hetan deportasaun tanba dokumentu ne’e kaduka tiha ona iha tinan rua liu ba.  Hau informa ba Tribunal (ne’ebé iha Meretíssimu Juiz no ilustrísimu  Prokurador sira) kona-ba problema ida ne’e ba Estadu. Bainhira ema ne’e to’o iha Timor, nia hetan interogasaun no nia konfesa katak, tinan liu ba, nia tama iha Timor ilegalmente liu husi fronteira. No nia selu $4,000 ba Xefe Suku ida iha Dili ne’ebe konsege halo sertifikadu nasimentu ho Timoroan ida nia naran (maka mate tiha ona), hodi nune’e nia konsege hetan passaporte Timor, maka nia uza hodi fila ba Indonézia, iha ne’ebé nia hetan detensaun. O hatene, Emilia, kazus hanesan ne’e la afekta Estadu, tuir hanoin pratikantes Justisa nain sira! Maibé, ida ne’e maka diak liu tan -  sira tau Koreanu ne’e iha aviaun no haruka fila fali ba Korea, no Xefe Suku ne’e kontinua nafatin halo sertifikadu falsu no produz tan passaporte falsu!  

 

Hanoin ba, Emilia!  Sira atu salva Estadu ida ne’e, no, tuir mai, salva paíz ida ne’e! Husi se... hau la hatene! Importante maka sira hanoin ka mehi katak sira atu salva paíz. Malae balun ho timoroan balun (ho boa vontade ‘barak’ no konvense a’an duni) hahu fo sai ona naran balun... metin, redundante no espetakular – hanoin ba, Emilia! Sira deit maka bele salva Paíz ida ne’e... husi talin korupsaun Xanana nian!

Mundu ne’e fo volta barak mak halo ema oin halai... ladun preparadu atu aguenta ho kaprixu husi natureza... umana hirak ne’e!

Einfim, buat sira ne’e hanesan todan… ukun nain ida ninian, ne’ebé tenke sujeita ba pratikas ignorante... husi matenek-lei nain sira. Eziste prazer diaboliku ida atu submete ema hotu ba poder desizaun, la importa karik ne’e aktu justisa ka aktu desprezu moral no etika.  (Koalia kona-ba moral no etika, iha mos reverendu balu hatais batina ne’ebe kritika ministru Xanana nian halo korupsaun, maibe sira la apar katak ema hotu hatene ona katak sira tama iha jogatina iha internet no lakon osan barak (iha hanoin ida katak osan hirak ne’e mai husi transferensia públika ne’ebe Estadu halo ba Uma Kreda sira), ne’ebé santiñu sira hetan husi empréstimu husi ema partikular to’o montande furak idak liu dólar millaun ida. Kuitadu, Amu Papa Francisco nein hatene ida ne’e!)

Oh, ke xatise! Loos duni, hau sés hela husi hau nia atensaun ba haree deit ba kotuk... 

Hau hakarak fo hanoin ba o, karik o la lembra ona, kona-ba kondisaun aat Ministeriu Planu no Finansas nia let, bainhira o simu knaar atu lidera instituisaun governu ida ne’e nian!  Hau hatene, katak, bainhira o lee ida ne’e, o sei hanoin kona-ba surat barak, ne’ebé la tau iha orden no la iha arkivu! 

No tinan ba dahuluk o nia knaar mak atu hamos rai-rahun ne’ebé halo mundu tomak mear... organiza arkivu, haketak departamentu no seksaun oin-oin, ordena atividade ba responsável ida-idak no ema ida-idak.  O sei lembra esforsu boot ne’ebe ita halo?  Kona-ba obstakulu ne’ebe ita hasoru tanba deit afiliasaun partidaria ne’ebe, iha tempu ne’eba, domina hela administrasaun públika, inklui mos Finansas?

No tan, bainhira introduz sistema finanseiru modernu ida!!! Saída mak o halo, Emilia?  Introduz inovasaun espetakular ida, iha paíz joven ida, iha Estadu foun ida?  Hau orgullu ho ida ne’e!!! Ema seluk, Xanana nia inimigu, nein hatene tan saída mak ida ne’e!!! Maibé la importa!!!

O nia kapasidade hodi hanoin, hodi atua, hodi produz, hodi kria... hatudu husi transformasaun instituisaun ida nian, ne’ebe fraku no la organizadu, maibé importante tebe-tebes no krusial ba Estadu, ba produtividade ekselente ne’ebe ita labele nega, ba efisiensia konprovadu husi nia ajente sira no ba konfiansa justa husi komunidade internasional!

No episodiu barak mak ita liu hamutuk, Emilia! Mesmu ho o nia ain-aat, o nunka tauk ameasa ne’ebe o hasoru! O Valente duni, o Brani duni!

O sei lembra Kuwait?  Ne’ebe no bainhira ‘Sheik’ ida ameasa ita katak ‘sei la iha reuniaun, karik ita la asina uluk deklarasaun ida ne’ebe rejista katak ita sei ‘onra’ ‘akordu’ ka ‘kontratu’ ho kompañia balun?’ Ne’ebe ita hatene katak buat sira ne’e falsu?  Ne’ebe o aguenta presaun boot husi Kuwait sira iha lokraik tomak no parte kalan? Presaun ida ne’ebe ita sente katak ita nia viajen sei remata iha ne’eba? 

Hau admira o nia matenek! Tanba ita hatene ona katak ita sei enfrenta dezafiu hanesan ne’e, la iha ida hanesan o bainhira o lori ema australianu/arabe ida, ne’ebe tulun ita tebetebes hodi sai husi susar ne’eba… ne’ebe bele tau ita nia moris iha perigu!  Uffff….

O hatene saída mak ohin, hau hanoin fali, Emilia? Karik ita nain rua beik duni, no hau la hatene, se o maka beik liu hau, ka hau maka beik liu o!!! Faktu mak ita estupidu duni... ho letra hotu ne’ebe hakerek no lee!!!

Haree deit, Emilia, se hau laiha razaun! Invez de o hetan kondenesaun ba krime ida, ne’ebe o la halo, ba partisipasaun ekonomika iha negosiu ka buat ida hanesan ne’e, karik ita espertu natoon ba haree katak ida ne’eba, oportunidade ida ne’ebe diak duni – se ladiak! – hodi simu... millaun dólar lubuk ida, ein troka ho ita nia silensiu no konluiu, hau la fiar katak, ohin loron ka iha futuru, pratikante Justisa nain sira iha Timor-Leste sei bele siik dala ruma katak... ita nain rua riku... tanba nega interese rai doben ida ne’e nian!

Tanba, ba hau, partisipasaun ekonomika mak o simu parte kuota husi ‘negosiu’ ida.  Karik o nia laen sai hanesan ‘broker’ ida, ai, sim, hau bele konkorda katak iha intensaun hodi bele hetan osan Estadu nian.  Hau koñese ema barak hanesan ne’e iha Timor!  No sira konsidera nudar ema onradu, ‘brokers’ hirak ne’e!  O nia laen nain ba fabrika ida... nia faan

no ema selu... la halo  saída mak iha ne’e ita kustuma bolu ‘komisi’ ka ‘komisaun’, ne’ebe pertense liafuan ‘brokeira’. 

Bainhira hau afirma katak pratikantes Justisa sira sei la hatene katak ita nain rua fa’an ita nia klamar tanba osan, tanba ema barak hatene ona katak Prezidente Tribunal Rekursu rasik, simu osan husi kompañia ida, ne’ebe hetan projetu Tribunal nian, no la konsege remata obra ne’e tanba falta osan, tanba fo ba Prezidente Tribunal Rekursu montante boot ida... Ministériu Públiku deit maka la hatene…

No tan:  Prezidente ida ne’e fo projetu seluk ba nia alin, hodi rejeita rezultadu ne’ebe nia funsionáriu sira aprezenta ba nia ho kompañia ida seluk nudar vensedora! Kapas loos... nune’e maka RDTL nia justisa funsi hela!  Sua Ekselensia ida ne’e la simu halo konkursu publiku hodi rekruta funsionáriu sira... tanba, nia presiza fo han nia família iha Ainaro, konserteza... nune’e, ita tenke rekoñese, ita bolu ne’e... aktu justisa ida!

No ema barak hatene one tanba sa Ministériu Públiku ‘finji’ la hatene... kona-ba pratika partisipasaun negosiu hirak ne’e, husi parte Prezidente Tribunal Rekursu, ne’ebe simu osan, tanba nia fo projetu!  Tanba Ministériu Públiku tauk vingansa/retaliasaun... klaru katak sira hotu, Tribunal no Ministériu Públiku, sira mak autor Justisa, kerdizer katak... kompetensia ka inkompetensia ba halo justisa ka injustisa pertense ba sira!

Hau dehan vingansa/retaliasaun, tanba Prokurador-Jeral da Republika rasik, bainhira nia ba Brazil hodi partisipa iha konferensia CPLP, nia aprezenta relatoriu despezas, inklui jantar ida ne’ebe laiha ‘faktura’ otel ka restaurante, maibé asina deit deklarasaun ida, iha Dili, katak osan ne’e gasta ba selu jantar ba delegasaun CPLP nian!  Afinal-de-kontas, labele duni iha faktura, tanba osan ne’e gasta tiha ba sosa vestidu no sasaan seluk ba senora ida… Prokurador Jeral da Republika nia fen rasik! No asesor Kaboverdianu Arlindo mak adianta nia osan, depois tenki hetan pagamentu bainhira to’o iha Dili.  No nia deit, matenek nain asesor ida ne’e, maka rai hela segredu ida ne’e, ne’ebe juiz kiak sira ne’e la hatene! Maibé, mesmuke sira hatene, sira labele halo buat ida… tanba Ministériu Públiku maka bele akuza, la’os juiz sira!  Juiz sira serbi deit ba ‘prova’ saída maka la provadu!!! La iha tan buat ida!!!

Emilia, hau hein katak o la kole bainhira lee buziganga hirak ne’e, ne’ebe devia pertense ba ‘social media’, ne’ebe ohin sai moda iha Timor. Ema dehan mai hau katak ‘Face-book’ inventa sasan oinoin, ne’ebe fo motivasaun mai hau hodi koko hetan brani natoon hodi fo sai segredu balun iha ita nia rai.

Ita fila fali ba haree deit ba kotuk...

O luta barak ba diversifika investimentu Fundu Mina-Rai, iha ‘Asaun’, ne’ebe ohin Estadu RDTL hetan lukru liu 2 mil millar dólar! O matenek duni, Emilia, bainhira hanoin oinsá ita bele selu empréstimu ho lukru mak ita hetan husi investimentu husi ita nia fundu soberanu ne’e. 

No o nia desizaun atu kontrola konta kompañia mina-rai sira, hatudu deit o nia sentidu defeza interesse Estadu Timor nian! Hau hanoin fila fali no, o mos hanoin kona-ba oinsá ema ignorante sira iha matéria ida ne’e ‘akuza hela o’, ba kazu asesor Amerikanu ne’ebe aproveita atu lohi ita, maibé no fim nia monu iha justisa nia liman... justisa amerikana nian.

Portal Transparénsia ne’ebe o introduz sai hanesan aktu espsional!!! O Boot duni, Emilia! O la’os servidor Estadu bainbain nian ne’ebe loron-loron halo serbisu hanesan, tuir hahalok hanesan, tinan ba tinan halo beibeik, hanesan abitu ida hodi assegura salariu ne’ebe sira simu... no dala barak, la iha tan meritu! No, iha ema barak hanesan ne’e... iha instituisaun Estadu sira ne’ebe importante no sira maka foti desizaun iha Estadu nia naran!

O hatudu mos, iha tempu naruk ne’ebe o serbi Estadu, nudar Ministra, vontade boot ida hodi hadia ba beibeik. Reforma mak o introduz kona-ba formasaun no treinamentu ba funsionariu ministeriu sira hanesan buat uniku ida, ne’ebe ema barak maka la kompriende, mesmuke sira rekoñese impaktu ne’ebe refleta hela iha sistema ne’ebe o hari. 

Hau hatene katak dala barak hau hakilar o no o tanis... ho nervus tanba o tauk katak ita bele viola o nia prinsipiu kontrolu finanseiru ne’ebe tos.  Maibé, iha parte seluk, hau fiar o sei lembra dala barak ne’ebe, o nia kolega membru Governu sira hotu, gaba o, ho hanoin ida katak karik la’os tanba o nia forsa, o nia energia, o nia vontade rin besiasu hodi la submete ba presaun no impoen regra jestaun finanseira, Governu ne’e monu tiha ona, no Estadu tama tiha ona iha krize finanseira insustentável ida.

Hau bele afirma, Emilia! Estadu RDTL deve O barak, feto ne’ebé fizikamente fraku maibé ho onestidade metin! Hau fo omenajen ba o, ho hakraik-an no admirasaun! O serbisu makaas hodi prevene atus barak ne’ebe bele estraga ita nia Estadu. O mos preokupa tebe-tebes kona-ba medidas mak instituitsaun balun la foti ka laiha vontade hodi implementa regras jestaun finanseira ne’ebe estabelese tiha ona. 

Tanba ida ne’e mak hau la konsege simu katak o halo krime partisipasaun ekonomika iha negosiu… mak estraga Estadu. Kama hirak ne’e agora uza hela, no Prezidente Tribunal Rekursu rasik hetan benefisiu husi tipu kama ortopedika hirak ne’e bainhira nia hetan stroke (atake fuan) no baixa hela iha ospital. Osan ba jantar ida maka la eziste iha Brazil... ne’e estraga Estadu! Tanba, afinal, gasta ba sosa ‘sasaan’ ba nia digníssima Sua Ekslelensia Prokurador Jeral da Republika nia fen! Estadu maka selu... sasan hirak ne’ebe relasiona ho kazal ida nia domin! 

Osan ne’ebe tama tiha iha Prezidente Tribunal Rekursu nia bolsu mak estraga Estadu... tanba emprezariu la konsege remata serbisu ne’ebe fo tiha ona ba nia!  No Prezidente Tribunal Rekursu husu tan osan adisional ba remata obra ida ne’e!

Halo hanesan hau, Emilia! Ketak husik susar hirak ne’e domina o, susar ne’ebe mai husi ema ho laran namalele... ema ne’ebé kakutak la hanoin, la iha prinsipiu, hahalok vulgar, analize mamuk no lojika virtual distorsida kona-ba realidade sosial no politika ita nia sosiedade oinloron nian, ne’ebe sei nurak, maibé hatudu ona la fiar no hakarak ida atu kria dezuniaun no intoleránsia, no mos nakonu ho ambisaun ne’ebe la sukat. 

Maibe, Emilia, ita fila fali hodi hare deit ba kotuk...

O nia forsa, o nia kumprimisu atu defende Timor-Leste husi presaun komunidade internsaional, liuliu husi komunidade doador sira ne’ebe gosta prega partida ba paíz benefisiáriu sira ne’ebe sei nurak hela, espektakular duni!

O nia hahalok hodi defende ita nia prinsipiu, ne’ebe foti ita nia imajen no lori ita nia hanoin hodi influensia reuniaun Busan/Koreia Sul, hodi mos halo Nasoens Unidas simu ita nia medidas, espektakular loos!

Iha ne’eba, hau tenke dehan, o afirma a’an nudar Timoroan, nudar Feto no Ukan Nain! No saída tan mak ita bele hatete kona-ba o nia papel hodi promove polítika foun relasiona ho Estadu frajil sira!  Ukun nain Estadu frajil sira nian... hadomi o, Emilia!  O mak Inan ne’ebe hahu konseitu ‘g7+’... o haluha tiha ona ida ne’e? 

Ita hotu deve O no karik Timor-Leste ohin hetan respeitu husi paíz hirak ne’e, ne’ebe hare ita, nudar ezemplu diak ida hodi sai husi ‘fragilidade ba reziliensia’, ida ne’e deve ba o nia devosaun ba kauza nobre ida ne’e... ba apoiu ba paíz no populasaun hirak ne’ebe nesesitadu-liu... la husu buat ruma ein troka!

Mundu presiza ezemplu hanesan ne’e! No o, Emilia, hahu introduz konsepsaun foun ida kona-ba ajuda ne’ebe la iha interese!

No hau la simu, husi atan hau ne’ebe salah nain, ne’ebe ohin o hetan akuzasaun ba buat ida ne’ebe la halo sentidu, relasiona o nia a’an, relasiona ho o nia atividade, relasiona ho o nia partisipasaun ba hadia ema sira nia moris,hakat liu orizonte fizíku ita nia paíz nian.

Emilia, hau fiar O, tanba hau koñese o, desdeke hau bolu o ba Salemba, iha tinan remata 1999, hodi ajuda hau hanoin ba tempu ukun-aan... hodi ajuda hau diskute ho Sara husi Banku Mundial, ne’ebe sai importante tebe-tebes ba ita nia analize kona-ba dezafiu futuru paíz nian. 

No, hamutuk ho o,  hau nia hanoin mos sei hakoak ba Madalena Hanjam, vitima injustisa ida seluk husi Justisa ita nia Paíz nian!

Kruelidade la mosu deit husi asaun violentu, kruelidade mosu husi mentalidade umana ne’ebe sofistikadamente hakarak impoen nia poder ba ema seluk, kruelidade hatudu husi falta konsiderasaun iha aktus kiik no mamuk husi ema sira ne’ebe kesi metin hela iha vizaun badak no prekonseitu limitadu. 

Emilia, Madalena, Suharto hamutuk ho imi! No ho Suharto, Foho Lulik no Matebian sei hamrik...ba deklara imi nia inosénsia!

Dili, 25 Janeiru 2017

Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão

Suharto Timor-Leste nian

Maun Xanana's Open Letter to Emilia Pires

Maun Xanana's Open Letter to Emilia Pires

(translated from the original Portuguese version)

Dear friend

I know you're going through the most difficult time of your life! You know very well that I do not understand anything about laws, because while I was in the mountains, I was not allowed to take law courses abroad and especially in Indonesia as were other respected Timorese people, with the latter filling in most of the positions of our MIGHTY judicial system.

You know, Emilia, I admire these people! They do not understand Portuguese but judge under laws written in Portuguese and sign judgments when they themselves do not understand what is written in them. I remember when I went to testify, I was faced with a perplexed judge who did not understand the article of the Procurement Law I was reading out to him, and he told me to shut up twice.

But that is not why I am writing this letter to you.

What I am doing is not an attempt to reduce the heavy pressure you have on your shoulders, weakened by the deficiency of your leg. My intention is only to look back in time, so that you never forget your primary role in this still fragile process of building our State. Among the people I saw during the trial, like your accusers, I noticed the presence of some who did not defend the independence of the country. How times change, right Emilia?

The people who accompany me or have accompanied me in the IV and V Governments are or have been nicknamed the Xananistas, and for the pleasure of the gods of 'greediness' they are all accused of being corrupt! Do you know why? Because I am the Soeharto of Timor-Leste! And you were all influenced or corrupted by my corrupt ideology. And some even sent congratulations to the RDTL justice practitioners because they 'got' many Xanana ministers into the Courts!

The members of the Government whom I most valued, in the IV Government were, among others, the two of you, Lúcia Lobato and Arcângelo. Lucia did everything to improve the working and salary conditions of the judicial system and its agents ... she was punished, either out of ignorance or chauvinism!

Arcângelo suffered political and psychological pressure from a trail for nothing! Wrong from a trial to prove the iniquity of the values of injustice!

Those will read this, will say that I am trying to defend you! No, for God's sake, the point is that I myself am on the list. The Public Prosecutor’s advisor said so, and some are bragging about it! One of your accusers seems to have been assigned to gather data about me ... and this one even brags about her role as a sorceress of justice! Nowadays, they all feel this way ... powerful, exemplary, sober and upright ... in a ghostly perception that they have the State in their fists! Little do they realize that they do not even understand what a State is !!!

I state this - that they do not understand what a State is - with two concrete and abhorrent cases:

Firstly, when I testified in defence of a Police Commander, who had been subjected to humiliating vexation by justice practitioners in Timor for many years, even though he was recently found innocent. He had been arrested on charges of violating the human rights of Indonesian citizens who were detained by us on the eve of UNPOL's final withdrawal in 2012. These Indonesian citizens were drug traffickers who came to Dili to receive contraband from Colombia, and transport them to Indonesia, making Timor-Leste a 'free' transit point for this transnational crime. Because we were working in coordination with the Indonesian Anti-Drug Department, I instructed to hand over these Indonesian citizens to this Department. The accusation against the Police Commander was for violating their human rights because they were not allowed to use their rights of defence. (I know that you are watching over your case, in the various processes that you sent to the Court and that they simply archived). The other charge was to deny access to these individuals from justice, as if we had just released those men, even though we had proved that they were tried in Indonesia and convicted. And you know, Emilia, the practitioners of Justice in Timor claimed that only they had the competency to defend the sovereignty of the RDTL.

The second case, much more recent, simply shows the lack of consciousness of these practitioners of Justice. In a separate testimony statement, I reported that a Korean citizen, Timorese passport holder, was detained in Indonesia and would be deported because the document had already expired two years ago. I alerted the Court (where there were Honourable Judges and illustrious Prosecutors) of this problem for the State. When the man arrived in Timor he was questioned and confessed that, years ago, he had entered Timor illegally through the border. And that he had paid a Village Chief in Dili the sum of $4,000, which was able to produce a birth certificate, named after a deceased Timorese, from which he was granted a Timorese passport, which he used to return to Indonesia, where he was detained. You know, Emilia, cases like this do not affect the State, from the perspective of the practitioners of Justice!!! But the best is this - the Korean was put on a plane and returned to Korea, while the Village Chief can still produce more false certificates and get fake passports!

Imagine, Emilia! They will save this State and, therefore, the country! From what ... I do not know! The important thing is to think or imagine that they are going to save the country. Some foreigners and East Timorese (of 'much' goodwill and in the fullness of their convictions) already put forward some names ... rocky, redundant and spectacular - imagine, Emilia! Only they will be able to save the country ... from the bonds of Xanana's corruption!

The world turns around and around and makes people dizzy… less prepared to endure with the vagaries of and, better still, due to, human… nature!

In short, they are the skeleton of the trade ... of a ruler, who has to submit to those practices of ignorance ... from the wise-men of law. There is an almost demonic pleasure to put the rest under the deciding power, no matter whether it is from an act of justice or a contempt of morals and ethics. (Speaking of morality and ethics, there are also some reverend persons in cloth who criticize the corruption of Xanana's ministers, but are not aware that everyone knows that they are gambling on the internet and lose a lot of money (it is thought that this lost money may have come from the public concessions that the State gives to the Church), and these saints have turned to loans from private individuals amounting to a handsome amount of more than a million US dollars. Poor Pope Francis who may not be aware of this!

Oh, what a bummer! It's true, I'm running away from my intention to look back in time ...

I want to remind you, if you have forgotten, of the pitiful conditions in which the Ministry of Planning and Finance was when you were given the responsibility to lead that governmental institution! I know that as you read this, you will remember all the rubbish paperwork, without order nor files!

And your first year was to clean the dust that was making everyone cough ... organize the files, separate the different departments and sections, plan the activities of each responsible person and each individual. Do you remember that it cost a lot of effort? Of the obstacles encountered due to party affiliations that, at the time, dominated the public administration, including the Ministry of Finance, of course?

And even more so when it was the introduction of a modern financial system!!! What did you do, Emilia? Was it not to introduce in a young country, a recent State, a spectacular innovation? I'm proud of that !!! Others, the enemies of Xanana, do not even know what that is!!! But it does not matter!!!  

All your capacity to think, to act, to produce, to create ... was revealed in the transformation of, at the time, a weak and disorganised institution, but extremely important and crucial for the State, into excellent undeniable productivity, with an efficiency proven by its agents and the just trust of the international community!

And were there not so many episodes that we faced together, Emilia! Even with your limping leg, you were never intimidated with the threats that you faced! You are Brave, you are very courageous!

Do you remember Kuwait? Where and when the Sheik threatened us that “there would be no meeting if we did not agree previously to sign a statement where it would be recorded that we would 'honour' the 'agreements' or 'contracts' with certain companies”? That we knew were fictitious? Where you had to resist all afternoon and part of the night Kuwaitian pressure? That pressure or feeling that we may not have the return trip?

I admire your cleverness! Because we knew that we were going to face challenges of this kind, you were simply unequalled by taking that Australian / Arab person, who helped us immensely out of that trouble ... which could even have cost us our lives! Uffffff ....

Do you know what I think today, Emilia? We were really silly and I do not know if you, more than me, or me, more than you!!! What is certain is that we were stupid ... with all the letters, written and read!!!

You see, Emilia, if I'm not right! Instead of being convicted for a crime you did not commit, of economic participation in business, or something like that, if we had the genius to conclude that it was a great opportunity - if it was not! - to receive ... millions of dollars, in exchange for silence and collusion, I do not believe that, today or in the future, these practitioners of Justice in Timor-Leste would ever have guessed that ... we are rich ... at the expense of denying the interests of the our dear country!

Because, for me, economic participation is receiving a share of a 'business'. If your husband had appeared as a “broker”, then, yes, I can agree that there was an intention to appropriate the State money. I know many in Timor! And they are considered honourable people, these “brokers”! Your husband was the owner of the factory ... sells and gets paid ... there is not what is usually called here 'komisi' or 'commission', which belongs to the language 'brokery'.

When I said that practitioners of Justice would never know that we both sold our souls for money, it is because a lot of people know that the President of the Court of Appeal received money from a company that had a project from the Court that was never finished due to lack of funds, because a good amount was given to the needy President of the Court of Appeal ... Only the Public Prosecutor's Office does not know ...

Moreover, this President gave another project to his brother, rejecting the result of the public tender that his employees presented to him with another successful vendor! Wonderful ... that's how justice works in RDTL! And this His Excellency does not accept merit based public recruitment... because then, it is necessary to feed the relatives of Ainaro, for sure ... and to that effect, we must recognize, we call it ... an act of justice!

And many people already understand why the Public Prosecution 'pretends' that it does not know... of those practices of economic participation in business, by the President of the Court of Appeal, who received money in return of given the project! Because the Public Prosecution is afraid of retaliation... obviously, they all, Courts and Public Prosecution, are the actors of Justice, which means that... the competence or incompetence to do justice or injustice belongs to them!

I say retaliation, because the Prosecutor General of the Republic, when he went to Brazil to attend a CPLP Conference, presented the expenses report, including a dinner without the hotel or restaurant bill, but only a signed declaration, here in Dili, that the money had been spent at a dinner for the CPLP delegation! After all, there could not have receipts, because the money was spent to purchase dresses and other things for the wife ... of the Prosecutor General! And it was the Cape-Verdean Advisor Arlindo who advanced the money and had to be paid, once in Dili. And it is only him, this clever Advisor, who holds this secret, which the poor judges do not know! But even if they knew, they cannot do anything ... because it is the Public Prosecution who accuses, it is not the judges! The judges only serve to 'prove' what is not proven!!! Nothing more!!!

Emilia, I hope you do not tire of reading these muddling issues, which should belong to the 'social media', which is now fashionable in Timor. They tell me that 'Facebook' invents everything, that I even feel motivated to find the necessary courage to try it and unravel some truths from our country.

Let's look back in time ...

You fought so much so we could diversify the investment of the Petroleum Fund into 'Equities', which today enabled the RDTL State to have a profit of more than 2 billion dollars! You are intelligent, Emilia, when we thought about how we should resort to loans and pay them off with that profit from this investment from our Sovereign Fund.

And your decision to control the accounts of the oil companies only revealed your sense to defend the interests of the Timorese State! I remember, and you also remember, how those ignorant on the matter “accused” you, in the case of that American advisor who took advantage to deceive us, but who ultimately fell into the hands of American justice.

The Transparency Portal you introduced was an exceptional act!!! You're great, Emilia! You are not an ordinary servant of the State who does the same things, every day, in the same way, repetitively for years, as a habit that secures the salary he/she receives ... most of the time, without merit! And there are many of those in important institutions of the State and who make supposed decisions in the name of the State!

You revealed, during the time in which you served our State, as Minister, an inexhaustible desire for constant improvement. The reform you introduced on the training and professionalising the Ministry’s staff is something unique, not noticed by many, although they recognize the impact that this is being reflected in the system you have created.

I know that you remember how many times I yelled at you and you cried... with some nervousness that you may have had to break your principles of rigid financial control. But, on the other hand, I believe that you will remember so many other times that all your fellow members of the Government praised you in the sense that if it were not for your strength, your energy, your unwavering will to not yield to the pressures and impose financial management rules, the Government would have fallen sooner and the State would have slipped into an unsustainable financial crisis!

I can tell you, Emilia! The State of RDTL owes a great deal to you, a physically weak woman but with an out-of-the-ordinary honesty! I pay this tribute to you, with humility and admiration!

You were overly scrupulous in many matters that concerned possible acts that would harm the State! You were also very concerned about the lack of corrective measures at institutions that lacked or lacked the will to adopt the established rules for the financial management of public money.

That is why I cannot accept that you have committed a crime of economic participation in business that would have damaged the State. The beds are being used, and the President of the Court of Appeal himself has benefited from the use of these types of orthopaedic beds when he got a ‘stroke’ and was hospitalized.

The money for a fictitious dinner in Brazil hurt the State! Because, after all, it was to buy 'little things' for the dignified wife of His Excellency, the Prosecutor-General of the Republic! It was the State that paid these trifles of conjugal love!

The money that went into the pocket of the President of the Court of Appeal injured the State because the businessman failed to finish the work that was awarded to him! And the President of the Court of Appeal was asking for additional money to complete the work!

Do as I do, Emilia! Do not allow yourself to be dominated by the bitterness caused by frivolities of spirit ... of people, inert in thought, devoid of principles, vulgar in attitude, empty of analysis and distorted in the virtual logic of social and political reality of our

society's contemporary life, still embryonic but already revealing of much disbelief and an unstoppable desire for disunity and intolerance and, at the same time, full of excessive ambitions.

But, Emilia, let us return to look back in time ...

Your strength, your commitment to defending Timor-Leste from the pressure of the international community and above all from the community of donors who liked to play games to the beneficially naive beneficiary countries was simply brilliant!

Your defence of our principles, which made us stand out and, in a way, imposed our ideas at the Busan / South Korea meeting, making the United Nations adopt our measures, was really spectacular!

There, I must say, you affirmed yourself, as Timorese, as woman and as leader! And what about your role as promoter of a new policy regarding fragile states! The leaders of fragile states love you, Emilia! You are the Mother who conceived the 'g7 +'... have you forgotten?

We all owe you,  and if Timor-Leste is respected today by these countries, which look at us as a magnificent example of moving from 'fragility to resilience', this is due purely and simply to your devotion to this noble cause ... to support the countries and populations most in need ... without asking for anything in return!

The world needs these examples! And you, Emilia, began to introduce a new concept of aid!

And I do not accept, from the bottom of my sinful soul, that you are incriminated today with something that does not make sense, in relation to your person, in relation to your activities, in relation to your participation for the improvement of people's lives, beyond the physical horizon of our country.

Emilia, I believe in you, because I know you well, since I called you to Salemba in late 1999 to help me think about independence ... to help me discuss with Sara from the World Bank, who was extremely helpful in our analysis of the country's future challenges.

And with you, my thoughts also embrace the other victim of the injustice of Justice of our country, Madalena Hanjam!

Cruelty does not come only from violent actions, cruelty comes from the sophisticated human mentality of imposing its power on others, cruelty is revealed in the lack of consideration and petty mindedness shown by the smallness and frivolity of actions, of those who are locked in narrow and limited preconceptions.

Emilia, Madalena, Suharto is with you! And along with Suharto, the Sacred Mountains and Souls will rise ... to declare your innocence!

Dili, January 25, 2017

Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão

The Suharto of Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste aviation industry – everyone is better off with two truly independent providers

Timor-Leste aviation industry – everyone is better off with two truly independent providers

*Cosme da Costa Araújo

January 2017

In a small market economy such as Timor-Leste aviation industry, no competition allows a single provider to monopolize the market and do whatever it wants, charging higher price for low quality service. But too many competitors could fuel collusion, or a price war, which ultimately lead to deterring and driving out competitors, and retaking of monopoly position. For now, everyone would be better off with two truly independent providers.

Not everyone is as lucky as Marvi

Our journey into the New Year begins with a jubilant welcoming of Maria Vitoria, the third runner up of the 2^nd Asia Dangdut Academy. A record crowd turn-out for a previously unknown Timorese teenage girl nearly brought Dili to a standstill. Marvi, as she is now known, epitomizes the Chinese prophecy for 2017 – the year of the Rooster – the year of dawn and awakening, triumph and success for those who work hard.

But not everyone is as lucky as Marvi. Air Timor, for example, a company that is dear to many proud Timorese for flying with “Timor” name and run by many Timorese businessmen, decided to terminate its Denpasar flights and reduce the frequency of its Singapore flights. The inconsistent application of the regulations by the Government and overcapacity are the main reasons leading to the reduction of its route network, significant layoffs and the surrender of any Timor-Leste airline opportunities to Indonesian carriers. The Government dismissed Air Timor’s claims and responded that “Timor-Leste is a free market, whereby Government’s role is merely to do with regulations”. The Government went further to blame the company to bring the disaster into itself for lacking managerial capacity and inability to resolve its internal affairs.

A market too small for many competitors

Accessing to Timor-Leste from other countries is predominantly by air. Air connections are limited to three entry points: Singapore, Denpasar and Darwin. Dili-Denpasar route was first serviced by the Merpati Nusantara Airlines. The monopoly position it enjoyed allowed it to charge an exuberant one-way price above $300. The entry of Batavia Air in 2010 offered an alternate transportation for the Dili-Denpasar route and the price fell accordingly by 30%. Sadly bankruptcies took toll on both companies forcing them to cease their operations in 2014 and 2013 respectively. Sriwijaya Air, another Indonesian private airline, began flying to Dili in 2013. A year later with the entry of Air Timor, in partnership with Citilink, the price for a single trip fell considerably to around $100 or less. Sriwijaya apparently colluded with Nam Air, one of its subsidiaries, waged a price war and dumped the price to $70, far below the market price. Air Timor succumbed and left the route in early 2017. Consumers’ enjoyment of low airfares was short-lived with one company again dominating the market, and the price is skyrocketing, back to its previous record high.

With a small market of about 100,000 passengers flying in a year, there are so many seats available compared to market demand that the three airlines could only achieve 50% or less Load Factor. Too much competition actually results in everyone worse off situation. When a small market is shared among a larger number of firms, the unit cost rises as few economies of scales are realized. The higher unit cost necessitates higher price being charged. In a market where airlines usually need 70% to break-even, competition forces companies to run at margin loss which leads to a price war and the subsequent failure and return to monopoly ultimately does not benefit consumers.

Australian airline market with approximately 60 million passengers flies domestically, only two providers service the market – Qantas and Virgin. Its international airline industry remains quietly regulated and is subject to detailed capacity controls. More competition should be encouraged for the Dili-Darwin route, which is still dominated by Air North.

An indication of an apparent colluded “duopoly”

Timor-Leste has seven slots available to fly from Dili to Indonesia. The Government of Timor-Leste issues licenses to both Sriwijaya Air and Nam Air, each as a separate independent company. In fact, Nam Air is a subsidiary of Sriwijaya. With a different cost structure and economies of scales leveraged from its wider operation in the other Indonesian market, and the transfers of Nam Air passengers on low-capacity days, Sriwijaya enjoys the competitive advantage over Air Timor. The deep pocket it has enabled it and its subsidiary to wage a price war that Air Timor is not able to match. The actions of the both airlines indicate an apparent collusion to force rivals out and to maintain its monopoly position. All of us would have felt the impacts as price is skyrocketing immediately after Air Timor’s decision to terminate its Dili-Denpasar route.

Government failures exacerbate market failures

The Government is right that in a free market economy, the Government’s role is to set and enforce regulations. Therefore, Government has been intervened to correct market failures through regulations. However, in many instances, Government intervention can also fail to achieve an efficient allocation of resources.

To ensure aviation safety, the Government enacted legislation that stipulates aircraft must be no more than 20 years old. There is no ambiguity in the legislation. Air Timor was asked to replace its 18-year-old aircraft with a new A320 Airbus. But Sriwijaya and NAM are allowed to operate its 22 year old aircrafts.  The Government argues that both airlines are technically assessed to still be suitable for operation regardless of its 22 year old aircraft, which contradicts the clear stipulation of the law.

The Government’s inconsistent and discriminatory enforcement of the legislation violates the provision and the intention of the law itself. And by allowing both airlines which were ranked last year among the 10 least safe airlines in the world and banned from flying in Europe and by relying the assessment carried out by other countries on the safety of the aircrafts, the Government puts the safety of its own citizens at risk. The very people they vow to protect when they come to office. This type of legal uncertainties may set a bad precedent that could deter future potential investments.

Towards the end of 2016, the Government introduced a price support regulation which set a minimum price the airlines can charge. However, the regulation was repealed in the Council of Ministers. How the minimum price came about is still unknown. A price floor is fine, as long as it is set fairly close to the equilibrium price. The Government needs to do further study to determine what the equilibrium price is. It is clearly above the low price that forced Air Timor out of the market.

After the termination of Air Timor operation, the price is skyrocketing. A return ticket for Dili-Denpasar is now close to $300 or more. The Government has to swallow its pride to intervene by monitoring and controling the price charged by now a single provider. How the Government is going to do this remains unclear. If it is trying, the current price suggests it is not doing a good job. These are few examples of government failures which exacerbate market failures. The Government can be sued for breach duties and violation of the law.

Everyone is better off with some competition

Timor-Leste aviation industry is a market too small for too many competitors. We have seen and experienced that a monopoly provider is able to charge a higher price at will, reaping the benefits at the expense of the customers. The two truly independent providers offer us alternate and affordable options. But more than two providers will either fuel collusion, or a price war, driving out competitors which ultimately lead to the charging of high price. For now, everyone would be better off with two truly independent providers.

What the Government can do is to set a minimum price to stop future price wars and encourage Air Timor or other low carrier to enter the market. If the market is not big enough, the Government needs to put a price ceiling so that traveling is affordable for as many consumers as possible. An alternative option would be, in Timor-Leste case, flying could be considered as public goods. Therefore, a national commercial airline can be introduced, jointly financed and run by the Government in partnership with the private sectors – a typical Public Private Partnership  (PPP) arrangement.   

Support “Rai-Nain” – Timor owned, Timor led

Timor-Leste is in need for foreign direct investments (FDIs) to help create jobs, reduce unemployment, improve living standards and create revenues for the government. These byproducts are secondary to the main objective of FDIs, which is to maximize profits whenever and wherever opportunities exist. But FDIs will leave the country without notice when such opportunities no longer exist. Let’s see what these investors would do when Petroleum Fund runs out.

Only domestic Timorese investors, the “rai-nain”, will stay put to help out their country and their people. During the dark hours of our struggle, we vowed to unshackle ourselves from any form of dependence. And we will never “kaer kuda talin rasik”, if we halfheartedly support the likes of Jape Konsu, Jackson Lay, Clarissa Lay, shareholders of Air Timor, and many other Timorese who are not dependent on the government’s handouts. They help create jobs, pay taxes, and more importantly keep the money circulating in our economy, instead of repatriating it overseas. Surely such local businessmen warrant our support rather than the companies that squander public money on precarious projects. When other countries forbid foreign airlines to compete in their domestic market, bail out their ailing national carriers, and force their public servants to fly their national carriers, why can’t we support ours.

A free market economy sounds good in theory. But not many countries, who preach it, practice it. It reminds me of a wise Timorese man once told his confidant “every theory is good; but the only one that is useful, is the one that fits the reality of our country”.

* The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of any entity or person that author works or associates with.

References

ABC News, (2017), Air Timor: Government policy, suspected corruption ‘destroying’ East Timor’s only airline.

ADB, (2015), Growing the non-oil economy: a private sector assessment for Timor-Leste.

Air Timor, (2017), Press Release

Ch-Aviation, (2017), Air Timor closes Bali route, blames government policy, dumping, www.ch-aviation.com

Investopedia, (2017), What is an ‘Imperfect Market’

Lusa, (2017), Companhia aérea timorense culpa política do Governo por perdas de 3 milhões de dólares

Lusa, (2017), Governo timorense espera que indonésia Citilink continue voos entre Díli e Bali

Ross, D., (2015), Aviation safety vs commercial profits, www.policyforum.net

The Economist, (2002), Fair play, free markets

The Economist, (2013), Spot the difference: legacy vs low-cost carriers

The Economist, (2015), The collusion delusion: Airline competition