Taur Matan Ruak – “Xanana Foun” Timor-Leste

Taur Matan Ruak – “Xanana Foun” Timor-Leste

Cosme da Costa Araujo

Iha ailaran ami dehan Xanana ba tiha komarka,

Xanana foun mosu mai.

Agora mós hanesan Xanana katuas rezigna-a’an,

Xanana foun mosu mai.

(Jeneral Lere Anan Timur)

Xanana deklara rezigna-a’an - ita nia maun bo’ot Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, eis gerileiru, lider karismátiku no atual Primeiru Ministru, durante debate públiku ida iha loron 11 Novembru 2013, iha Centro Convenção de Dili, liu husi transmisaun direita (rádio no televizaun) ba povu tomak iha teritóriu Timor-Leste, foti desizaun ida nebe’e halo ita hotu hakfodak, katak nia sei rezigna-a’an husi ninia kargu hanesan primeiru ministru iha 2015. Ikus-ikus ne’e, Xanana rasik dehan nia sei rezigna-a’an iha tinan ida ne’e nia rohan, Setembru 2014. Tuir Xanana, desizaun ida ne’e irreversível katak sei la muda tan ona.  Hahú husi nebá, ita hotu komesa preokupa no husu ba malu; primeiru - tamba sá Xanana rezigna-a’an?, no segundu no importante liu - sé lós maka sei troka Xanana?

 Tamba sá Xanana rezigna-a’an? - hatán ba pergunta ida ne’e, Xanana rasik dehan nia rezigna-a’an hodi fo tempu no fiar ba jerasaun foun hodi kaer ukun no kontinua estafeta luta naruk ba dezenvolvimentu nasional. Tenik tan Xanana, jerasaun tuan sei la deskansa, maibe dezempenha fali funsaun ida diferente hodi tau matan ba asuntu importante seluk (hanesan desentralizaun, dezenvolvimentu integradu no sst).

Hatán ba pergunta hanesan, ita hetan mós respostas oin seluk. Balun dehan  Xanana rezigna-a’an tamba nia kolen. Hau interpreta liafuan “kolen” ne’e ba buat rua. Primeiru, Xanana kolen fízikamente no psikolojikamente. Xanana serví nasaun ida ne’e iha tinan barak nia laran. Durante tinan 24 nia laran, Xanana pasa tempu barak iha ailaran no kadeia hodi halo funu, hanoin, no planea estratéjia ba funu hodi libertar a pátria. Hafoin ukun rasik a’an, Xanana mós kontinua hanoin, planeia, no implementa planu estratéjiku ba dezenvolivmentu nasional hodi libertar o povo. Buat hirak ne’e hotu halo nia fízikamente no psikolojikamente kolen. Ho tan nia idade nebe’e aumenta, nia kolen duni.

Segundu, liafuan kolen hanesan metáfora ou soe-lia ou sindiran ida ba servisus membrus governu nian hirak nebe’e, tuir hau nia haré, la tuir planu ou lao sabraut, nune’e la atinji objetivu determinadu. Tuir Vicente Maubosy, membrus governu laiha efisiensia, laiha produtividade no outputs mínimu. Membrus governu sira, hanesan Mari Alkatiri dehan, preokupa liu maka kompete hodi buka protagonismo no imajen hanesan estrelas ou bintang iha TVTL. Pior liu maka ministrus balun ema diskonfia koruptu, hadau malu servisu ou la hatene halo saida lós, prátika hahalok imorál – baku fe’en, iha fe’en barak, selingkuh tiha pois foto tan no sst. Tan ne’e, tuir Maubosy, buat hirak ne’e hotu halo Xanana triste, hirus no frustasi. Xanana kolen ona ho nia membrus sira.

 Iha mós espekulasaun seluk nebe’e mosu, liu-liu husi Mario Carasscalão, katak Xanana rezigna-a’an hodi hadiak kondisaun hafoin nia aparecer em grade hodi implementa ninia mehi – libertar o povo – nebe’e fo-sai iha planu estratéjiku dezenvolvimentu nasional. Tuir Mario, Xanana ninia mehi hirak ne’e – criar uma sociedade mais justa – to’o agora seidauk implementa tuir nia hakarak. Xanana sei la desaparecer completamente de cena, maibe sei fila fali mai, em outras formas de intervenção, hodi finaliza buat hotu nebe’e nia hahú tiha ona, maibe seidauk remata.  

             Sé lós maka sei troka Xanana? – ema barak liu-liu analista sira, media (nasional no internasional), desde Xanana deklara rezigna-a’an, komesa sik-tun-sae no fo-sai sira nia prediksaun konaba sé lós maka sei troka Xanana.  Balun temin Agio Pereira, Deonisio Babo Soares, Bendito Freitas, Fernando Lasama, Jose Luis Guterres, no mos Dr. Rui Araujo hanesan kandidatu forte hodi troka Xanana. Tuir sira, figuras hirak ne’e maka iha potensialidade hodi troka Xanana hanesan primeiru ministru. Maibe Agio Pereira rasik dehan wainhira nia husu pergunta hanesan, Maun Bo’ot hatan katak – pergunta ne’e sala. Pergunta lolós maka Timor-Leste bele prodús Xanana hira? Liga ba Jeneral Lere nia lia husu karik – Xanana foun hira maka bele mosu mai hodi troka Xanana katuas. 

 

Hamosu Xanana foun? – husi diskusaun hirak nebe’e ita iha to’o ohin loron, ita haré no preokupa liu ba lideres hirak nebe’e sei troka Xanana hanesan primeiru ministru. Ho liafuan seluk, ita preokupa ho pergunta sala. Ita preokupa liu ba pozisaun primeiru ministru nebe’e sei mamuk ou vácuo iha tempu badak ne’e nia laran. Ita seidauk fo resposta diak ida ba Jeneral Lere nia lia-husu hamosu Xanana foun. Liafaun Xanana foun, tuir hau nia interpretasaun, signifika Xanana as the whole package ou Xanana hanesan pakote ida.  Xanana-primeiru ministru ne’e hanesan parte integrante ida husi Xanana pakote ida. Tamba ne’e iha figura barak nebe’e iha potensialidade hodi troka Xanana-primeiru ministru, maibe susar tebes atu hetan figura ida hodi troka Xanana hanesan pakote ida kompletu. Ida ne’e maka Jeneral Lere nia hakarak - hamosu Xanana foun nebe’e transende Xanana-primeiru ministru.

Taur Matan Ruak - Xanana Foun Timor-Leste - durante ne’e wainhira koalia konaba papél jerasaun tuan iha prosesu transferênsia lideransa ba jerasaun foun, maun bo’ot Xanana sempre temin ami nain ha’at, iha nebe’e nia refere ba Ramos Horta, Mari Alkatiri, Lu-Olo no nia a’an rasik. Nune’e mos Ramos Horta, wainhira koalia konaba jerasaun tuan, nia temin –Xanana Gusmão, Mari Alkatiri, Lu-Olo, Jeneral Lere no nia a’an rasik. Lideres nain rua ne’e no sira seluk (intensionalmente ou lae) la temin Taur Matan Ruak hanesan jerasaun tuan. Sé nune’e tamba sá ema la temin Matan Ruak hanesan jerasaun foun? Hatan ba pergunta ida ne’e, ita hetan respostas rua. Primeiru, pozisaun atual Matan Ruak hanesan prezidente repúblika maka ekslui tiha nia husi diskusaun durante ne’e. Segundu, durante ne’e ema haré liu ba figura ida nebe’e sei troka Xanana-primeiru ministru iha tempu badak nia laran. Ema haluhan tiha haré ba oin, ba tempu naruk. Wainhira koalia konaba futuros líderes nebe’e iha potensialidade hodi troka Xanana hanesan pokote ida maka hau fiar no ema hotu sei konkorda katak Matan Ruak nia naran mos sei tama iha diskusaun nia laran.

 

Tamba sá Taur Matan Ruak maka ita nia Xanana Foun? – argumentu prinsipál husi artigu ida ne’e maka Taur Matan Ruak maka Xanana Foun Timor-Leste. Tuir mai ne’e razaun hirak nebe’e (no sei barak tan) nebe’e hau foti hodi suporta hau nia argumentu. 

Matan Ruak Hadomi Nasaun Timor – Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, hadomi tebes nasaun Timor. Ida ne’e hatudu liu husi nia luta naruk durante tinan 24 nia laran (iha ailaran) hodi defende prinsípiu ukun rasik a’an. Hanesan ho Xanana, nia husik buat hotu; familia, riku-soin, no moris diak sira seluk, hodi moris terus iha ailaran hodi fo a’an tomak - patria ou morte - ba nasaun ida ne’e. Matan Ruak hatudu nia domin ba nasaun ida ne’e hodi hamutuk ho povo fakar ran ba ukun rasik a’an.

Matan Ruak hadomi povu Timor – Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, hadomi tebes povu Timor. Haré ba povo Timor nebe’e terus iha tempu kolonialismu no liu-liu tempu okupasaun estranjeira, halo nia fo a’an tomak dedika deit ba misaun ida – libertar o povo. Hafoin hetan tiha ukun a’an, Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, la tu’ur hakmatek deit, maibe kontinua fali funu ida seluk nebe’e todan liu, funu ba dezenvolivmentu nasional hodi liberta povu husi kiak no mukit, ba sosiedade ida justa iha nebe’e ema hotu, laos ida rua deit, goja ukun rasik a’an ida ne’e. Matan Ruak husik nia pozisaun diak hodi ba hamutuk ho povu hisik kosar ba moris diak.  

Matan Ruak, nune’e mós Xanana, hahú ninia servisu hanesan presidente repúblika hodi vizita povu sira iha áreas remotas hodi agradese ba sira nebe’e tulun nia durante funu iha ailaran no mós rona sira nia halerik. Matan Ruak, nune’e mós Xanana iha 2002-2006, senti katak agora ne’e nia labele halo buat ida ba povu nia halerik no buat a’at sira nebe’e nia haré no la gosta, maibe nia sei fila fali mai hanesan Xanana Foun hodi hamutuk dala ida tan ho povu hisik kosar ba moris diak. Matan Ruak rasik dehan independensia seidauk kompletu no funu ba prosperiedade sei todan liu funu ida uluk, tamba ne’e nia sei fila fali mai hanesan Xanana Foun hamutuk ho povu hodi inspira sira kontinua nafatin ispíritu funu ida uluk ba iha prosesu dezenvolvimentu nasional. 

Matan Ruak hakuak ema hotu. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, nuda’ar kandidatu independente nebe’e hetan suporta husi ema hotu wainhira kandidata a’an ba prezidente repúblika. Matan Ruak hakuak no hetan fiar husi ema hotu – veteranus, klandestina no liu-liu povu Timor oan hotu. Hanesan Fidelis Magelhaës rasik dehan povu haré Matan Ruak hanesan sira nian rasik. Liafuan sira nian rasik signifika katak povu konsidera Matan Ruak mai husi sira, hamutuk ho sira, no sei fila fali hodi serví sira.  Nune’e Matan Ruak, hafoin Xanana, maka figura ida nebe’e bele halibur forsas polítika hotu. Hanesan Xanana dehan hamutuk ita bele, Matan Ruak mós nune’e – hamutuk ita bele halo Timor-Leste nakfilak ba nasaun ida prósperu, forte no seguru. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, bele sai símbolu unidade nasional.  

Matan Ruak simples, haraik a’an no iha integridade a’as. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, ema ida simples, fasil atu hasoru, la formal liu, koalia no halimar ho ema hotu no la foti a’an. Matan Ruak iha integridade nebe’e a’as. Úniku lider nebe’e publika nia riku-soin ba povu tomak hodi haré. Hahalok ida ne’e simplesmente hatudu katak nia iha duni komitimentu hodi funu hasoru prátika korupasaun. Iha ninia vida familiar, Matan Ruak lao tuir lolós lalaok familia nazaré. Iha tempu agora nebe’e moral iha uma laran komesa naksobu (divorsiu a’as, fen barak, selingkuh, esploitasaun ba feto), Timor presiza lider hanesan Matan Ruak hodi fo inspirasaun no ijemplu ba nasaun ida ne’e, nebe’e agora daudaun atravesa hela fenómena degradasaun moral.  

Matan Ruak fo prémiu ba buat diak no kastigu buat nebe’e a’at. Diferensia entre Matan Ruak ho Xanana maka, Xanana hadomi liu povu Timor tamba ne’e maske ema halo salan nia tanis no perdua deit sira. Matan Ruak oin seluk, nia hahí ou louva buat nebe’e diak, maibe nia kritika buat nebe’e a’at. Ijemplu nia kritika funsiunáriu sira nebe’e servisu baruk ten, husu governu labele fo projeitu ba veteranus sira, lamenta uma MDGs nebe’e laiha kualidade, sujere kriminaliza kompanias nebe’e halo projeitu laiha kualidade no sst. Matan Ruak hatene lolós karakter Timor nian, nebe’e kuandu ita halimar ho sira, sira sae fali ita nia ulun.  Timor presiza lider hanesan Matan Ruak. Lider ida nebe’e tenki koalia maka’as, fo sansaun, la tolera sala sira, no fo prémiu no hahí ba buat sira nebe’e diak.  

Matan Ruak iha vizaun no planu klaru ba Timor-Leste. Hanesan Xanana ho ninia Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasional, Matan Ruak mós iha vizaun ida klaru ba Timor-Leste. Nia hakarak Timor ida forte, prósperu no seguru. Matan Ruak hakarak Timor-Leste la depende ba mina no gas, tamba nia fiar osan husi mina no gas halo ema sai baruk. Atu atinji objetivu ida ne’e, Matan Ruak fo prioridades ba dezenvolvimentu iha área produtivu, hasae kualidade edukasaun, harí infraestruras bázikas, hametin no habelar direitus ba rai, harí no hadiak boa governasaun, implementa desentralizasaun hodi lori dezenvolvimentu ba áreas rurais, no hametin justisa sosial. Matan Ruak, hanesan mós Xanana, iha mehi ida klaru atu lori Timor-Leste ba nebe’e. Matan Ruak iha ona hanoin, planu oinsa dezenvolve Timor hodi sai Timor ida forte, prósperu no seguru. 

Matan Ruak bele fasilita “uma transição suave de liderança”. Iha prosesu transferensia lideransa, ita presiza middleman ida hodi fasilita tranzisaun lideransa diak husi jerasaun tuan ba jerasaun foun. Haré ba jerasaun foun barak nebe’e seidauk preparadu em termos esperiensia, matenek, no liu-liu mentalidade (tamba ema barak haré jerasaun foun hanoin sira nia a’an deit hodi buka riku no sst), maka ita presiza duni figura hanesan Matan Ruak hodi fasilita prosesu ida ne’e lao ho diak. Timor presiza lider hanesan Matan Ruak atu prepara didiak jerasaun foun, hadiak sira mentalidade, haklean sira nia esperiensia no matenek, hametin sira nia ispíritu hodi serví povu laos sira a’an, hafoin maka bele fo responsabilidade ba sira.  

Hanesan Raul Lemos no feto foun Timor-Leste Krisdayanti dehan sosok Xanana Gusmão dan Taur Matan Ruak masih sangat dibutuhkan rakyat Timor-Leste (povu Timor-Leste sei presiza tebes nafatin figura hanesan Xanana Gusmão no Taur Matan Ruak). Liafuan sangat hatudu hakaran ida bo’ot husi povu Timor ba lider rua ne’e ninia envolvimentu iha prosesu tomak Timor-Leste nian. Matan Ruak hatudu ona katak nia (1) hadomi tebes nasaun no povu Timor, (2) hakuak ema hotu, (3) simples, haraik a’an no iha integridade a’as, (4) hahí buat diak no kastigu buat a’at, (5) iha vizaun no planu klaru ba Timor no (6) bele fasilita tranzisaun diak ba prosesu transferensia lideransa no sst.  Ho razaun hirak ne’e no sira seluk tan maka hau haré no ema hotu sei konkorda katak Taur Matan Ruak maka Xanana Foun Timor-Leste nian.

Uluk iha ailaran Xanana ba tiha komarka, Matan Ruak mosu mai, agora mós hanesan Xanana katuas rezigna-a’an, Matan Ruak mosu mai hamutuk ho povu dalan ida tan hisik kosar ba luta naruk hodi “libertar o povo” ba Timor-Leste ida forte, prósperu no seguru.

 

The Ministry of Finance organized a series of information sessions on the role of Petroleum Fund in the national development process

Dili – The Petroleum Fund Administration Unit (PFAU) of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) organized a series of information sessions on the Role of Petroleum Fund in the National Development Process. The first session was held on the 3^rd of August 2013 at the Ministry of Finance Knowledge Centre and was attended by members of the V Constitutional Government. The second session was on the 5^th of August 2013 for representatives of civil society and university students. The third session was on the 7^th of August 2013 attended by General Directors and National Directors of the public service.

The main objective of these information sessions were to share with the participants the important role played by the Petroleum Fund in the Timor-Leste national development process. Three main topics were discussed; (1) update on the Petroleum Fund investment strategy, and (2) update on the Petroleum Fund investment performance, and (3) introduction to the benefits framework analysis.

Ms. Emilia Pires, Minister of Finance, in her brief intervention, drew the participants’ attention to the significant dependence of the state on the nation’s petroleum resource. Revenue from the petroleum sector supports 90% of the state budget. She further added that all public promises that are made should take into consideration the forecasted future costs and the sustainability of financing. In response to this concern, she informed the participants that the Ministry of Finance is in the process of conducting a comprehensive benefit framework analysis to look at the costing of all public promises that have been made by the government.

Mr. Cosme da Costa Araujo, a staff in the Ministry of Finance, started the first presentation with a slide highlighting that the objective of having a Petroleum Fund is to benefit both current and future generations of Timorese. This objective was established in the preamble of the Petroleum Fund Law. He further stated that the Petroleum Fund can benefit Timorese in two ways. Petroleum revenues are spent and invested domestically through the annual state budget process, of which money are allocated to pay for goods and services, social transfers, and also to invest in physical infrastructures and capacity development. Spending and investing domestically benefit the current, but also future generation of Timorese. Meanwhile unspent petroleum revenues are invested in financial instruments located abroad. Investment in financial instruments generates additional financial return that provides opportunities for future generations to spend on their priorities and needs.

On investment strategy, Sr. Cosme reminded the participants that the fundamental reason for changing the Petroleum Fund Law, which was approved in 2011, was to diversify the Petroleum Fund investment to enable the alignment between the investment policy and fiscal policy. In other words, as he further explained, with the new strategy of 60% investment in bonds, and 40% in equities, there would be a reasonable probability that in long-run, the Fund could achieve a real return of 3%, which is matched to the 3% ESI (Estimated Sustainable Income), the guideline for annual transfers to the state budget.

With regard to petroleum investment evolution, Mr. Cosme updated the participants that as of the end of 2012, 74% of the Fund’s assets were invested in the United States Government Bonds and 26% were invested in developed market equities. The Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Government, decided to continue to increase the equities exposure to 40%. This targeted exposure is planned to be achieved by the end of June 2014. In addition, the Fund will diversify 10% of its bond portfolio to international sovereign bonds ex-US.

In relation to the investment process, Sr. Cosme made an important comment, which was that investing is complex and involves detailed and comprehensive analysis. Financial investing is a long-term and systematic process that requires clear objectives and discipline. Ad-hoc decisions are unlikely to pay off over time. In addition, any investment decision should balance four important factors (1) speed, (2) ability, (3) quality and (4) cost.

In the second presentation, Mr. Peter Ryan-Kane, from Towers Watson, an external advisor to the Ministry of Finance on the Petroleum Fund, mentioned that since the inception, the Fund’s annual investment return has been positive. But he also reminded the participants that this reality will not hold permanently, meaning that the Fund may see some negative returns in the years to come. But he reassured them that as long-term investor, short-term fluctuations in value are less important, because these are the risks that the Fund is willing to take in order to gain a higher return in the long-run.

Mr. Peter also explained that there are three key risks that the Fund faces. The first is the risk that the Fund earns less than 3% return. Therefore, to manage this risk he suggested continuing to develop the investment strategy. The second risk is reputation risk. Therefore, to mitigate this risk, he emphasized the need for a strong governance standard, using a sound international investment process, having a formal process for considering proposals from third parties, and formal sign off procedures. The third risk is the risk of losing money. The strategy to manage this is by spreading the investments across multiple asset types, countries, currencies, and managers, and using custodian bank and external fund managers wisely.

In his last presentation, Mr. Peter talked about the relationship between the budget process, sources of funding and promises. He stated that all the promises that we make today will have implication on the future costs. He said that some budget items have a current cost, but do not contain a future promise, for example health, education and security. Other budget items have both a current and future cost, for example payments for veterans. Some items have only a future costs, for example pensions promised to civil service when they retire. Therefore, he suggested that the costs of these promises should be quantified and their implication on future costing should be considered. In response to this concern, Mr. Peter reiterated Minister’s early statement that the Ministry of Finance is going to conduct a benefit framework analysis to look into the costs of all promises made by the government.

The information sessions were concluded with Mr. Cosme reminding the participants of the important role played by the Petroleum Fund in the Timor-Leste national development process. By participating in these sessions, it was hoped that the participants can contribute, directly or indirectly through their day-to-day work, to ensure that the nation’s petroleum wealth is managed and spent in a way that brings the most benefit to both current and future generations of Timorese.

 

source:https://www.mof.gov.tl/the-ministry-of-finance-organized-a-series-of-information-sessions-on-the-role-of-petroleum-fund-in-the-national-development-process/?lang=en

 

2012 Asian Investment Summit

http://www.asianinvestmentsummit.com/gallery/2012-asian-investment-summit

Asian asset owners talk allocation issues

Click on the following link for a complete access to the article

http://www.asianinvestor.net/News/303321,asian-asset-owners-talk-allocation-issues.aspx

Timor-Leste central government approach towards sustainability of petroleum revenues.

by Cosme da Costa Araujo

This research seeks to given an understanding of and answers to the question of how does Timor-Leste central government approach sustainability with respect to its petroleum revenues. In the context of Timor-Leste, sustainability is often associated with inter-generational equity and the avoidance of resource curse. Institutional theory and MCS package are two theoretical frameworks to help building the understanding of how Timor-Leste government approaches sustainability.

The empirical findings show that the institutionalized practices that government has adopted and implemented are influenced by the internal and external factors which taken place through coercive, mimetic and normative pressure. Timor-Leste reliance on petroleum revenues, the uncertainties associated with petroleum activities, the mandatory financial reserved put forward by the Constitution, learning from the mistake of resource curse and the success story of Norwegian model and with the help of IMF and other organizations and experts; all these factors influence Timor-Leste to institutionalizes the followings approaches; establishing Petroleum Fund Law and Petroleum Fund, investing the Fund in financial market and non-oil sector i.e. education, health, infrastructure and agriculture.

 

All these aforementioned institutionalized practices are argued to help Timor-Leste to achieve sustainability of petroleum revenues and hence the avoidance of resource curses. The evidence also shows the importance of reporting mechanisms i.e. budget and financial reports as management control tools to direct efforts towards the goal and to hold government accountable by measuring its performance. Budget is the most important of all prevailing controlling mechanisms. In doing so, it functions as planning and controlling mechanism. However, the effective of these reports are remained to be seen and is not covered in this research. This is what further research in Timor-Leste approach towards sustainability can be dealt with. A comparative study between Timor-Leste and Norway is also recommended for future research to look at.

Click on the following link to access the full document.

http://brage.bibsys.no/hibo/bitstream/URN:NBN:no-bibsys_brage_18596/1/Da_Costa_Araujo_Cosme.pdf

 

Relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) ho estudante: buat ida normál iha Timor-Leste?

Cosme da Costa Araujo

 

Iha loron hirak liu ba ne’e, no até agora, ita rona ema koalia ou gosip, ita haré iha faceebook no lê iha blogs (hanesan-timorhauniadoben), no jornal sira, nebe’e diskonfia akontese aktu inapropriadu entre mestre ida ho ninia estudante. Iha tinan ida ne’e nia laran deit ita akompania akontesimentu hanesan aman “fo oan” ba nia oan rasik, germo nebe’e hetan kastigu tamba fasilita feto-ran ida ho “katuas riku”.

Ita hotu lamenta ba hahalok a’at hirak hanesan ne’e. Hahalok hirak nebe’e laos bai-bain, sa-tan halo husi ema hirak nebe’e mos laos bai-bain hanesan mestre(a). Hahalok hanesan ne’e laos maka foin akontese, maibe akontese dala barak tiha ona iha tipu oi-oin no sei akontese nafatin, sé kuandu ita hotu ho konsientemente husik deit hahalok a’at no lamentável hirak ne’e akontese nafatin.

 Husi reasaun oi-oin nebe’e ita hetan, hatudu momós katak ita hotu despreza, la-gosta, no lamenta hahalok a’at hirak ne’e. Hau só hakfodak no surpriendidu maka laiha reasaun ruma husi autoridades kompetentes hanesan Ministériu Edukasaun, Pais do Alunos, no Komisaun ba Labarik, PNTL no ulun konfisoens relijiozas sira. Keta halo ba sira hanoin buat a’at hirak hanesan ne’e “bai-bain tiha ona”, “biasa tiha deit”, ou “toman tiha ona”. Tamba ne’e sira “la-pusing”, hatene mas halo finji la hatene. Sé ita hanoin nune’e ou ita la foti medidas ruma forte hodi rezolve buat hirak ne’e, hau la hatene morál nasaun ida ne’e atu lao ba nebe’e lós. Ita kuda hela fini a’at ba ita oan no bei-oan sira katak hahalok a’at hirak hanesan ne’e “normal” iha Timor-Leste.

 Relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) no estudante konsidera hanesan hahalok a’at tamba: Primeiru – mestre(a) nuda’ar “edukadór” ba alunu sira, laos deit iha materia eskolár nian – matemátika, fízika no sst, maibe mos iha dezenvolvimentu étika, morál, mentál ou psikik estudante nian. Nuda’ar edukadór, mestre(a) tenki ser sai hanesan “role model”, liu husi nia liafuan no hahalok. Role model ba nia estudante sira no mos nia kolegas mestre(a) sira seluk. Iha prosesu dezenvolvimentu, estudante sira sempre buka ema ida sai hanesan sira nia role model hodi fo dalan ba sira iha tempu ida nebe’e sira foin hasoru buat barak iha sira nia moris. Hanesan “role model” labele iha tohik ruma iha mestre(a) ninia personalidade liu-liu koalia no hahalok. Mestre(a) nia hahalok tenki ser hanesan ou han malu ho ninia koalia. Edukadór nebe’e diak sei hamosu mos estudante no foinsae nebe’e diak no vice-versa. Nune’e mos mestre(a) sai hanesan “aman ou inan” ou “orang-tua” ba estudantes iha eskola. Hanesan aman no inan sira sempre hanoin no halo buat nebe’e diak ba nia oan sira, laos “apro” fali sira.

 Sigundu – relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) no estudante hanesan ho relasaun “ema bo’ot” ho “menór”. Ita nia lei rasik, liu-liu ita nia Kódiku Penál la permite no kriminaliza relasaun entre “ema bo’ot” ho “menór”. No maske estudante ne’e  tinan 18 ba leten no parte rua maka hakarak ou “mau sama mau” hodi halo relasaun  ne’e, maibe tamba iha enviromentu relasaun entre mestre(a) ho estudante, hahalok hanesan ne’e kategoriza inapropriadu nafatin. Hanesan kazu famozu ida akontese iha Estadus Unidus Ámerika, Sra. Amy McElhenney nebe’e hanorin iha Hebron High School, nia hetan kastigu tamba nia halo “relasaun inapropriadu” ho ninia estudante, maske estudante refere iha ona tinan 18 (iha EUA tinan 17 maka tinan legál konsiente ba relasaun seksual).

 Mestre(a), ho pozisaun, autoridade, no atributu sira seluk, bele direita ou indireita psikolojikamente influensia estudante hodi submete ou “submissive” ba mestre(a) nia hakaran. Wainhira estudante ida senti konfortável ou toman ou “nyaman” ona ho mestre(a) ida, psikolojikamente nia prontu (tamba seidauk hanoin ho rasionál) atu halo buat saida deit maka mestre(a) hakaran. Apalagi estudante sira nebe’e ladún iha domin husi aman-inan ou “broken home”, sira ne’e vulnerável liu. Iha tempu ida hanesan ne’e mestre(a) labele aproveita fali estudante nia fiar ou “kenyamanan” ou vulnerabilidade ba ninia interese pesoál. Sé iha provas nune’e duni, entaun ida ne’e tama ona iha “hahalok ho intensaun” atu halo “manipulasaun”, no ita Kódiku Penál kondena hahalok hanesan ne’e.

 Relasaun inapropriadu entre mestre(a) no estudante LAOS hahalok ida normál. Pelo contrario, ita bele dehan hahalok abnormál, nebe’e ita hotu lamenta. Se mestre(a) sai ona ameasa ba ita nia oan sira, se tan maka ita bele fiar?. Ita hotu, liu-liu parte kompetentes, labele taka matan, no la bele halo finji la hatene, se lae ita husi buat hirak ne’e sai tiha normál iha ita nia rai doben Timor-Leste. Se ita la hahú ohin, bainhira tan, se laos ita, se tan.

 

 

Greek tragedy: lessons learned for Timor-Leste

*Cosme da Costa Araujo & Simen Bjornerud

 The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to a global economic recession, which the world has yet to recover from, and a European sovereign debt crisis, which is not yet resolved. Many consider the last five years as being the most economically challenging the world has faced since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unemployment rates are high and rising, especially in South-European countries like Greece, and it will be a long and painful journey for these economies to get back on track.

The news of this drama does not claim headlines in remote Timor-Leste. Interestingly, the last five years of dismal development in main economies of the world has coincided with double-digit annual economic growth in Timor-Leste. Since our undeveloped economy still does not have strong trade links with the world markets, we are somewhat shielded from the downturn in global economic activity.

We need to recognize, however, that our strong economic growth in recent years is driven by a significant increase in the spending of petroleum income. Being non-renewable, petroleum income may look high today, but this inflow will stop in the not too distant future. Public expenditures, on the other hand, are difficult to curb, let alone reduce. These prospects set the stage for an evolving “financing gap” that needs to be filled by domestic revenues. Otherwise, we are just living beyond our means and will before long run into serious economic and social problems.

The core of the Government’s Strategic Development Plan is to create a robust and diversified economy with viable jobs that will alleviate poverty and also help provide the Government with sustained incomes to finance its programs. The development plan is bold and necessary, although not risk-free. The outcome may become different. This article looks at how things went wrong in Greece and discusses if there are lessons that Timor-Leste can learn from to avoid unnecessarily falling into known pitfalls.

What caused Greece´s debt crisis?

Important factors behind the Greece debt crisis include; (1) lack of fiscal discipline, (2) ineffective public spending, (3) structural challenges and macroeconomic imbalances, and (4) borrowing.

• Lack of fiscal discipline is the most important factor behind the Greece debt crisis. Spending more than she could afford, Greece lived beyond her means for decades. According to IMF data, government expenditures were significantly higher than government incomes in all the years since 1980, when the recording started. The financing gap, as measured by the government net borrowing, peaked at EUR 36 billion in 2009, equal to almost 16% of GDP.
• Ineffective public spending. A large part of the government´s budgets has been allocated to subsidies, wages, pensions and other entitlements. While a natural part of any modern welfare state, recurrent expenditures such as these needs to develop in tandem with the government´s income side, which again depends on economic growth and private sector employment. Instead of facilitating the latter, the government embarked on a dramatic increase in public sector employees, both in central government (ministries) and in municipalities, as well as a significant rise in the relative wage compared with the private sector. This did nothing to improve private sector entrepreneurship and competitiveness. Moreover, productivity-enhancing real investments were lacking. Many argue that the 2004 Olympics price tag of some EUR 7 billion actually triggered Greece´s demise.
• Structural challenges and macroeconomic imbalances. The oversized public sectors lead to trade imbalances. On average, industrial production fell by 1.6% every year between 2000 and 2012. Without a competitive currency generating export sector to finance the country´s excessive demand for goods and services, the current account deficit ballooned at some EUR 50 billion in 2008, according to IMF figures. Widespread corruption and a business structure run by elites groups lobbying for government projects, cemented the economic malaise.
• Borrowing for consumption. Not surprisingly, to be able to finance the excess, the government needed to borrow lots of money. Initially intended to finance productive investments, the loans soon became a central financing vehicle of the budget, increasing substantially between 2005 and 2011 from EUR 195 billion (100% of GDP) to EUR 356 billion (170% of GDP). The unsustainability became apparent and the possibility of defaulting approaching. 

Greece´s experience shows how fiscal slippage and ineffective spending lead to structural challenges and macroeconomic imbalances, which paved the way to ill-advised borrowing and misuse of those funds. Eventually, Greece found itself on the edge of the abyss with an agonizing journey ahead.

What price does Greece pay for its mistakes?

Tough austerity measures, meaning strict measures to align expenditures with revenues, are the high price Greece now needs to pay. The government has to significantly tighten its belt by cutting spending, raising taxes or both. Some has argued for Greece leaving the EU to assume more flexibility in its policy tools, but this outcome seems less likely, as it would represent a serious blow to this prestigious political agreement. The EU has provided rescue packages in terms of cheap loans to struggling European countries, including Greece, to prevent them from defaulting. These rescue packages have come with tough conditions, however, to get public finances back on a sustainable footing. Measures in Greece include wage cuts and other unpopular labor market reforms, increased taxes, increasing the retirement age and tightening loopholes in the tax system.

It is difficult, to say the least, to strike the right balance between necessary fiscal tightening in the face of default, on the one hand, and to offer some kind of stimuli to an economy on the slide, on the other. The Greek economy has declined since 2008 and is operating far below its potential with unemployment rates reaching 25% in 2012. This is not a time you prefer to slash public spending, but then again Greece has no choice. Unemployment rates at these levels are not merely an economic issue – it is a serious challenge for the society. People have repeatedly taken to the streets to show their disapproval with government policies. This kind of social unrest reminds us that at the end of the day it is ordinary citizens that have to pay the price for the government´s irresponsible behavior.

What can Timor-Leste learn from the Greece debt crisis?

Every country is different and has to find its own way. Every country will also make mistakes along this way, including Timor-Leste. Still, some mistakes are graver than others and some may be unnecessary, giving a true ring to the Chinese proverb telling us that it is wise to learn from your own mistakes, but it is wiser to learn from those of others. We are fortunate in the sense that experiences of others, either they are good or bad, like the Greece debt crisis, are readily available for us to study. Below are some yardsticks that will benefit Timor-Leste when it is navigating towards its overall goal of being a prosperous and strong nation. The point of departure is that we are currently a poor nation with temporary high income from the petroleum extraction. History has clearly shown that to be a significant challenge in terms of transforming the temporary windfall into persistently improved lives for all citizens.

·         Avoid the resource curse. This should be Timor-Leste´s top priority. Timor-Leste takes seriously the fact that developing countries with abundant natural resources often experience relatively weak economic development compared with countries without natural resources. The most important decision for Timor-Leste to avoid the resource curse is to separate the inflow of petroleum income from it’s spending. We have already done this by establishing the Petroleum Fund (PF). All petroleum incomes first go in to the PF before a suitable amount is being transferred to the state budget. The Parliament decides how much to spend and how much to save every year, taking into account the welfare of both the current and the future generations. The Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI), described below, is meant to help Parliament make that decision.

·    Maintain fiscal discipline. Timor-Leste is the second most oil dependent country in the world, after South Sudan. Petroleum revenue finances more than 90% of government's budget. Without a fiscal rule, it is likely that government spending will be too high. Appreciating that fiscal discipline is a precondition for a stable economic development, as Greece now painfully experiences, our PF framework involves the so-called Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI). In short, the ESI is how much oil money we can spend every year without depleting our wealth. One way to look at the ESI is as the “zero-line” in the budget. If we spend more than the ESI, we are running a budget deficit. That may be ok for a while, while important projects are undertaken (like the government´s Strategic Development Plan), but not for long. Greece ran a budget deficit for decades and that did not go well. Accordingly, Timor-Leste quite soon needs to align spending with ESI.

·         Be careful with borrowing. Timor-Leste has over $13 billion in the PF, so it is no obvious economic reason why the Government should borrow. Usually it is more expensive to borrow than to use your own savings. Sometimes, though, a poor country like Timor-Leste may benefit from concessional terms as well as technical assistance on the project level that makes pursuing the loans worthwhile. We need to remember that the loans have to be paid back, not by us, but by our children. Hopefully we invest the money wisely so that our children are better off than we are now and therefore are better enabled to pay off the debt. The experience from Greece and many other countries warns us that we should go about this very carefully.

·         Ensure a lean and efficient public sector. The number of people employed in our public sector has increased significantly since 2005. The increase in staff and their salaries is reflected in the upward trending government recurrent expenditures. There are limits to how many civil servants we need – and, importantly, can afford. We need competent people in our administration, but the public sector should not be the generator of jobs. That is the private sector´s task. The paradox is that if we make it overly attractive to work in the public sector with relatively generous wages and other entitlements, why pursuing a job in the private sector? A key principle to be adhered to in the public sector is putting the right person in the right place. This involves a strict merit based hiring policy and following up by rewarding those who perform well.

·         Boost the private sector and create viable jobs. As laid out in the government´s Strategic Development Plan (SDP), our prospects are dependent on a strong and competitive private sector that generates viable jobs. It is important to facilitate this development by ensuring that basic infrastructure is in place. Equally important, however, is to ensure that the business environment is attractive for foreign and domestic firms. Currently we have a long way to go, as documented in the World Bank’s Doing Business reports. One important avenue forward in pursuing the goals in the SDP is to provide the agriculture sector with readily available technology to increase the yields from its current low levels. This will also improve food security and reduce the drag on economic growth by replacing imports. Increased revenues in the agriculture sector will spread out in the economy and it is important to have Timorese ready to grab the opportunities that is most likely to occur in the service sector. We need to educate our people to make them skilled and ready and have a business environment that encourages firms to engage.

·         Ensure government programs are affordable over time. Pension schemes, for example, tend to appear cheap in the beginning, but become costly later. Being non-renewable, we know that our petroleum income eventually will diminish and cease. We should not put ourselves in a position where our public expenditures start accelerating when the petroleum incomes abate and peter off.  Rather, we need to be responsible and consider long-term sustainability when designing government programs.

·         Make sure every dollar spent counts. We are unlikely to achieve this if we try spending too much too fast. It is like pouring water into a small glass; it will soon spill over. Another way of understanding this is that if we spend more than the economy can absorb, the result will only be higher prices and not more economic activity that would create jobs. Effective spending is not only constrained by the absorptive capacity in the economy, another bottleneck is the capacity of our administration. Let us assume our public administration is able to efficiently process a budget of $1 billion. If we then double the budget over just a few years, it is likely that this will result in more waste. We need to be very thorough in selecting and prioritizing our projects. Our current high petroleum income may be perceived as a “soft budget constraint”, which makes it easier to approve projects with questionable long-term social and economic return.

What is the key take aways?

The main lesson the Greece debt crisis taught us is that we need to keep order in our own house. If we spend more than we can afford, we eventually run into serious problems that affect ordinary people. This is not just a lesson from Greece and the other troubled European countries nowadays, it is an easy-to-grasp key lesson from history; Fiscal discipline is a necessary condition for a sound and stable economic development.

Few, if any, will contest that it is important with budgetary discipline. The challenge in Timor-Leste is that the current big inflow of petroleum income may obscure our fiscal reality. We look wealthier than we in reality are. It is human capital and not petroleum that determines a country´s wealth. That is why Timor-Leste is still a poor country. The SDP is aiming to change that, but we need to sequence correctly. When SDP starts giving results in terms of more viable jobs and more sustainable income for the government, then we can start develop our welfare system accordingly. Anticipating success and in advance reaping the benefits of an assumed outcome is risky. It could cloud the most important condition for us to prosper as a nation – hard work.