The Resource Curse

By Isaac Arnsdorf | Published Sept. 12, 2014

 

Source - Bloomberg ((http://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/resource-curse/)

 

Striking gold or discovering oil would seem to guarantee instant fortune. Instead, they often lead to conflict, corruption and poverty. History is full of examples of countries whose natural-resource wealth led to less economic success. Revenue from extracting raw materials might be mismanaged or embezzled by government officials, or siphoned off by foreign corporations. The bonanza might crowd out investment in other parts of the economy and make goods and services more expensive. And the country’s fiscal and economic fate might hang on volatile global commodity prices, especially for smaller and less diverse economies. All told, local populations can be left with little to show for their resources except a degraded environment. Economists and social scientists call this phenomenon “the resource curse.” Many countries are trying to determine how to prevent or reverse it.

The Situation

Despite their abundance of oil, diamonds and other precious minerals, African countries including Angola, Nigeria and Sudan endure low average income and poor health indicators. While Middle East oil exports prop up extensive welfare spending, the region’s petrostates remain beholden to price swings and their people subject to undemocratic regimes. Though a superpower in resources as varied as iron ore, coffee and soybeans, Brazil continues to grapple with vast, dangerous slums. After centuries of plundering, Indonesia is trying to keep more wealth at home by restricting exports and investing in manufacturing. Critics such as the World Bank say the policies could deter investment and reduce tax revenue, yet international momentum is building behind efforts to improve resource management through more disclosures from governments and industries. Twenty-nine countries follow a voluntary international system of auditing company payments for commodities to make sure they match government revenues, and 17 more are applying to join the group. The U.S. and European Union are also implementing new rules for mining and energy companies to disclose payments.

                                               

The Background

The British economist Richard Auty coined the term “resource curse” in a 1993 book investigating why resource-rich countries underperformed other developing economies. A 1995 study found that economies with high commodities exports grew slower from 1971 to 1989, even after controlling for variables such as initial per-capita income and investment rates. Notwithstanding a few success stories (such as Botswana), the negative correlation between raw-material exports and economic growth suggests that resource wealth at least doesn’t help. The most commonly suspected causes include underinvestment in other industries (such as manufacturing), exposure to price swings, and concentration of wealth that discourages the development of rule of law and other conditions needed for a vibrant economy. The resource curse is sometimes lumped with the Dutch Disease, when a commodity boom makes a country’s currency more expensive and its other goods less competitive, named for the Netherlands’ 1960s crisis after discovering natural gas in the North Sea.

 

The Argument

Later researchers have questioned the existence of a resource curse, suggesting that resource wealth helps growth after all. Others have suggested that what matters isn’t resource abundance but dependence, or the strength of a country’s institutions. Initiatives to lift the curse have become a source of friction between developed and developing countries in intergovernmental bodies and in the international energy and mining industries. Experiments with controlling prices, blocking foreign direct investment and capping exports sparked controversy and backlash. The risk is always that the measures might kill the proverbial golden goose. Countries have had better luck with rules to moderate government spending, sovereign wealth funds, and lump-sum per-capita rebates. The newest discoveries, such as Ghana‘s 2007 oil find, are almost inevitably accompanied by discussion of what can be learned from the mistakes of the past.

INTRODUSAUN BA FUNDU PETROLÍFERU - Tamba Sá TL Estabelese Fundu Petrolíferu?

Tamba Sá TL Estabelese Fundu Petrolíferu?

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

 

Ita hotu nebeé moris no hela iha Timor-Leste (TL), rai-nain ka lao-rai, iha ligasaun direita no indireita ho Fundu Petrolíferu (FP). Ijemplu, osan selu saláriu trabailadores, pensaun vitalísia, veteranus, idozus, no kompañias. Osan sosa Hammer, pulsa tilun manas, Xinjang nia sasán nebeé dura loron ida deit. Osan halao atividade miss(ed) turizmu, osan harí ponte CPLP no osan hodi sosa no halo buat furak sira seluk. Osan hirak neé maioria, la seluk la leet, mai husi osan minarai - petro dollar - nebeé akumuladu iha FP.

 

Ijemplus hirak neé hakarak hatudu deit katak FP dezenpeña papél ida importante tebes iha ita nia moris loron-loron no liu-liu ba dezenvolvimentu nasaun TL. Antes hahú, uluk kna-nain hatoó agradese ba I Governu Konstitusional lidera husi Sr. Mari Alkatiri, nebeé maske iha tempu susar (laiha osan), nia no nia governu konsege, aprende husi esperiensia nasaun seluk, liu-liu nasaun Noruega, estabelese hela FP.

Artigu ida neé no sira seluk sei koalia konaba 1º objetivu estabelesimentu FP; 2º karakterístika FP; 3º governasaun FP; 4º investimentu FP; 5º tranferênsia FP; no 6º transparênsia no akuntabilidade FP. Artigu ida neé hahú ho pergunta importante ida neé - tamba sá TL estabelese FP?.

 

Objetivu prinsipál husi estabelesimentu FP maka atu asegura rikusoin rekursus naturais fo benefísiu ba ema hotu. Objetivu ida neé konsagra ona iha Konstituisaun RDTL (artigu 39) nebeé hateten Estadu tenkiser uza ho diak no justu rikusoin rekursus naturais hotu nasaun nian ba interese nasional. Lei Fundu Petrolíferu haforsa liu tan hodi dehan objetivu estabelese FP maka hodi kontribui ba jestaun diak rekursus petrolíferas TL atu nuneé fo benefísiu ba jerasaun agora no mos jerasaun futuru.

 

Iha kontekstu ida neé, FP nia funsaun atu asegura ekuidade entre jerasaun (inter generational equity). Osan minarai (reseitas petrolíferas) nebeé nakfilak-an husi petróleu iha rai-okos laos pertense deit ba ita (jerasaun agora), maibe ita nia oan no bei-oan (jerasaun futuru) sira mos iha direitu no sira sei ijiji sira nia direitu atu uza no goja mos rikusoin naun-renováveis sira neé. Atu asegura ida neé, FP, hanesan saving fund (fundu rezerva) ida, sei poupa (rai) hela osan balun, atu nuneé gerasaun futuru mos bele uza ba sira nia nesesidades (prioridades) rasik.

 

FP hamenus risku mal-jestaun ba rikusoin rekursus naturais. FP estabelese govenasaun, akuntabilidade, transparênsia no relatóriu ho nivel (padraun) ida aas tebes no rekoñesidu internasionalmente. Lei la fo dalan ba ema (instituisaun) ida foti (domina) dezisaun hotu nebeé relasiona ho jestaun FP. Entidade idak-idak (Parlamentu, Governu, Jestór Operasional) independemente halao nia knar tuir Lei haruka. Ho transparênsia nebeé aas (relatóriu trimestral, anuál, livru orsamentu, EITI) asegura akuntabilidade entidade relavantes sira no asegura povu nia konfiansa ba jestaun FP. Ho enkuadramentu FP nian, ita hotu bele hatene osan hirak maka tama, osan hirak maka investe, investe iha nebeé no osan hirak maka transfere ba orsamentu estadu. Ho exsepsaun ba kustus jestaun FP, Lei la fo dalan atu halo tranferênsia husi FP sein aprovasaun husi PN iha debate orsamental nebeé povu tomak bele akompaña. Nuneé ho FP ema (grupu) ida la bele halo mal-jestaun(dezvia) osan públiku ba nia (grupu) interese hanesan akontese iha nasaun sira seluk.

 

TL hetan ninia independénsia iha tempu ida oportunu. Ita iha oportunidade osan mean hodi aprende husi esperiensia nasaun seluk. Ita banati tuir esperiensia sira nebeé diak, hakribi no hasés-an husi sira nebeé aat. Esperiensia husi nasaun barak nebeé riku rekursus naturais hatudu katak rikusoin hirak neé la lori bensaun (blessing), maibe lori deit maka malisaun (curse) ba sira. Nasaun hirak neé hasoru konflitu (funu), povu barak moris kiak, korupsaun, rejime ditadura, governasaun sabraut, servisu públiku inefikás no inefisiente no sst. Esperiensia aat hirak neé toó halo eis ministru petróleu Venezuela nian, Sr Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso, hateten  oil is devil’s excrement (petróleo diabu nia teé).

 

Maibe esperiensia diak husi nasaun seluk hatudu katak sira bele no konsege hasés-an husi malisaun rekursu. Aprende husi nasaun hirak neé, liu-liu nasaun Noruega, TL estabelese FP, hanesan dalan ida, maibe laos dalan úniku, atu bele hasés-an husi malisaun rekursu. Malisaun rekursu akontese wainhira rikusoin rekursus naturais hamosu konflitu (funu), instabilidade makroekonómika no kualidade despezas públikas nebeé ladiak. Ho nuneé nasaun sira riku rekursus naturais (i.e Nigeria no Guinea Equitorial) ninia dezenvolvimentu ekonómiku no kondisaun moris aat tebes, kompara ho nasaun sira seluk nebeé laiha rekursus naturais (i.e Corea do Sul, Singapura no Taiwan). Estabelesimentu FP la signifika TL livre ona husi malisaun rekursu. FP parte ida deit husi mekanizmus no polítikas sira seluk nebeé Estadu adopta no implementa atu tulun TL la bele monu ba maliasaun rekursu.

 

FP hamenus vulnerabilidade ba risku volatilidade presu (produsaun) no asegura estabilidade orsamentu estadu. Nasaun barak nebeé riku rekursus naturais, bainhira sira hetan osan (reseitas) husi esplorasaun rekursus naturais, sira gasta kedan osan hirak neé. Sira transfere osan (reseitas) hirak neé direitamente ba orsamentu estadu. Konsekuentemente, sira vulnerável liu ba risku volatilidade presu (produsaun) (commodity price (production) volatility). Iha tempu diak, folin (produsaun) minarai sae, governu nia despezas mos sae no hakbiit governu hodi implementa programas barak. Maibe iha tempu aat, folin (produsaun) minarai tun, governu nia despezas mos tun, no obriga governu hodi la implementa nia programas balun. Iha tempu aat hanesan neé, governu barak maka prefere liu deve hodi sustenta nia programas (orsamentu) duke koa sira nia programas (orsamentu).

 

Ho FP ita bele hamenus risku volatilidade presu (produsaun) no asegura estabilidade orsamentu estadu nian husi tinan ba tinan. Orsamentu estadu la depende ba folin (produsaun) rekursus naturais. Iha TL, osan minarai (reseitas petrolíferas) tama direitamente ba konta FP. Hafoin kada tinan Estadu foti osan husi FP ba orsamentu estadu bazeia ba rendimentu sustentavel estimativa (RSE). RSE neé montante ida nebeé ita fiar sei asegura sustentabilidade FP ba tempu naruk. Montante ida neé estavel husi tinan ba tinan no la hetan impaktu makás husi mudansa (fluktuasaun) folin (produsaun) minarai. Sé iha impaktu makás ruma (folin no produsaun mina tun makás), governu bele transfere liu RSE atu nuneé governu bele kontinua implementa nia programas (prioridades) sira. Pelo contratrio, wainhira folin (produsaun) minarai sae,osan (reseitas) nebeé resin (surplus) bele paupa (rai) iha FP. Iha kontektu neé, FP dezenpeña nia funsaun hanesan Fundu Estabelizasaun (stabilization fund).

 

Fenómena seluk husi malisaun rekursu maka Dutch Disease (DD). Ba nasaun sira nebeé iha nia osan (moeda) rasik, DD akontese wainhira aumentu iha reseitas husi rekursus naturais haforsa valor osan (moeda) nasaun refere ka nasaun refere nia osan (moeda) apresia kompara ho osan (moeda) nasaun sira seluk. Ho valor osan (moeda) sae (apresiasaun moeda), halo nasaun refere nia esportasaun sai karun no importasaun sai baratu.

 

Reseitas petrolíferas la hanesan ho reseitas naun-petrolíferas sira seluk. Wainhira reseitas naun-petrolíferas (i.e reseitas doméstikas) aumenta, sei fo impaktu ba redusaun konsumu iha seitor privadu. Ho selu taxa, seitor privadu sei iha osan uitoan hodi konsumu. Nuneé demanda ba beins no servisus mos tun (menus). Maibe aumentu iha reseitas petrolíferas, nebeé transfere direitamente ba orsamentu estadu no ekonomia rai-laran, sei aumenta tan demanda (aleim-de demanda seitor privadu), nebeé ikus mai halo inflasaun sae aas.

 

Ho apresisaun moeda no inflasaun hakfraku kompetitivade seitores naun-petrolíferus. Nuneé produtus sira nebeé ita bele fan (esporta) sei la kompetitivu ho produtus importadus husi nasaun seluk. Ikus mai, nasaun refere ninia esportasaun menus no ninia ekonomia depende makás ba seitór petrolíferas no importasaun. Ekonomia TL ki’ik, tan neé nia kapasidade hodi absorve hotu osan petrolíferas limitadu teb-tebes. Liu husi FP maka governu transfere osan ba orsamentu estadu (tuir RSE) sukat tuir kapasidade ekzekusaun mas liu-liu kapasidade absorve ekonomia rai-laran. Ho nuneé FP ajuda limita risku Dutch Disease.

 

FP asegura despezas públikas nebeé diak. Nasaun riku rekursus naturais barak maka gasta osan ba projeitus sira (white elephant projects) nebeé la fo returnu  no benefisiu ba povu. FP hanesan dalan ida atu tulun Estadu atu asegura kualidade despezas públikas diak. Liu husi debate orsamental, PN, hanesan reprezentante povu, maka hatene liu no desidi prioridades (programas) Estadu nian nebeé maka serví interese nasional (povu nia diak). Nuneé PN bele kansela (koa) tiha programas sira nebeé la fo benefísiu ba povu nia moris diak. Enkuadramentu RSE mos obriga Estadu atu disiplina iha ninia polítika fiskal no fo atensaun no prioridades ba buat nebeé importante (priority of priorities). Maibe ikus mai despezas públikas ida diak depende fali ba vontade polítika (political will) Estadu nian rasik.

 

FP desenpeña papél ida importante tebes iha ita nia moris loron-loron. Objetivu estabelese FP maka 1º asegura rikusoin naturais fo benefisiu ba ema hotu, 2º ajuda TL hasés-an husi malisaun rekursu, 3º hamenus riksu volatilidade presu (produsaun), 4º limita risku Dutch Disease, 5º hamenus risku mal-jestaun, no 6º asegura despezas públikas nebeé diak.