PF Q3 Report - "Incomes did not exceed expenses" is an unfair assessment

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

Lao Hamutuk and the Diplomat rightly pointed out that Petroleum Fund balance decreased in Q3, compared to Q2 balance. The decrease, as they mentioned, was due to foreign exchange losses and also transfer made to the State Budget.

But arguing that "FOR THE FIRST TIME, EAST TIMOR'S INCOME FROM OIL AND GAS OPERATIONS DID NOT EXCEED THE EXPENSES RELATED TO THE OIL FUND" is unfair.

It seems that their conclusion is based on the following calculation - petroleum revenues in Q3 ($522 mil) minus losses and transfers ($340+231), resulted in about negative $50 mil.

However, it is an unfair comparison in terms of the time period and not a true representation of the withdrawal. Ideally, the government should smooth the expenditure (withdrawal) over the year, by taking out $158 mil/quarter (of total ESI amount of $632 that is expected to be withdrawn in 2014).

The $340 mil amount mentioned here is the total amount the Government had withdrawn so far in 2014 from the Petroleum Fund, just half of the budgeted ESI amount. This amount happened to be a "lump sump" withdrawal in Q3 (as no withdrawals were made in Q1 & Q2). Q3 therefore is bearing the burden of the withdrawal.

To be fair, in term of period comparison, it is better to look at the-year-to-date (YTD) numbers. In doing so, we can see that even if the Government manages to withdraw total ESI amount ($632 mil) by the end of 2014, it is still less than the total revenue received for the year to date ($1,606 mil), not to mention revenues from investment return ($365 mil year to date).

The declining trend in revenue is something that the Government acknowledges publicly in its Annual Budget Book 1. According to that report revenues have peaked in 2012 and are expected to decline from 2013 onward until they cease in 2020 - 2022.

KOREKSAUN BA NOTÍSIA TIMOR POST - KONABA “INVESTIMENTU FUNDU PETROLÍFERU”

Iha loron Kuarta, dia 26 Novembru 2014, Jornal Timor Post fo sai notísia ida iha seksaun Ekonomia nian, pájina 11 ho títulu “Osan Mina Hamutuk US$ 2,579 Investe iha Nasaun 14”.

 

Notísia ida ne’e bazeia ba aprezentasaun ne’ebé Sr. Cosme da Costa Araujo, reprezentante husi Unidade Administrasaun Fundu Petrolíferu, Ministériu Finansas, ne’ebeé hetan konvite husi ONG Luta Hamutuk hodi halo aprezentasaun iha loron Tersa, dia 25 Novembru 2014 kona ba “Investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu Timor-Leste” iha sede Luta Hamutuk, Farol, Dili.  

 

Objetivu husi aprezentasaun ne’e maka “atu haforsa kapasidade média hodi halo kobertura ba notísia relasiona ho Fundu Petrolíferu no hasae partisipante sira nia konesimentu konaba Fundu Petrolíferu”.

 

Ami nota katak notísia ne’ebé fo sai balun ladun lós. Tan ne’e, liu husi koreksaun ida ne’e, ami hakarak hadiak fali salan hirak ne’e.

 

Leitores sira presiza tau iha neon katak dadus balun ne’ebeé uza ba aprezentasaun ne’e to’o deit iha fim  Juniu 2014. Nune’e informasaun balun seidauk “update” ho relatóriu ofisial sira ne’ebé fo sai tiha.

 

Aprezentasaun ba mídia sira ne’e hahú hodi hateten katak objetivu estabelese Fundu Petrolíferu maka hodi “maneija ho diak reseitas petrolíferas atu nune’e bele fo benefisiu ba jerasaun agora no mos jerasaun futuru”.

 

Wainhira Fundu Petrolíferu hahú investimentu iha 2005, ita adopta estratéjia investimentu ida simples, hodi investe hotu deit iha obrigasaun sira nivel a’as demoninadu iha dolar EUA. Iha tempu ne’ebá Lei Fundu Petrolíferu No.9/2005 permite mínimu 90% husi Fundu investe iha rendimento fixo  (bonds) demoninadu iha moedas EUA ho nivel a’as no 10% investe iha instrumentu finanseiru sira seluk.

 

Iha tempu ne’ebá estratéjia refere importante tebes hodi tulun Fundu evita espozisaun ba risku no volatilidade, no iha tempu hanesan mos hakbiit no hasae ita nia kapasidade. Maibe estratéjia refere la sustentável, tamba kada tinan ita hasai 3% Rendimentu Sustentável Estimativa (RSE) husi Fundu Petrolíferu, enkuantu investimentu husi Fundu refere fo deit retornu menus husi 2% real.

 

Tamba ne’e, razaun fundamental hodi halo mudansa ba Lei Fundu Petrolíferu maka hodi diversifika investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu liu husi halo investimentu ba iha klase ativu oin-oin, hodi nune’e ita bele hetan aliñamentu entre polítika investimentu ho polítika fiskal. Mudansa ba estratéjia investimentu ne’e haforsa liu tan diversifikasaun hodi ajuda Fundu Petrolíferu mantein prezervasaun kapital, no evita risku konsentrasaun iha klase ativu ida deit.

 

Lei Fundu Petrolíferu foun (Lei No.9/2005, amendada ho Lei No.12/2011) ne’ebé foi lalais ne’e hetan revizaun prevee katak Fundu Petrolíferu investe másimu 50% iha ações públicas, no mínimu 50% investe iha rendimento fixo no la liu husi 5% investe iha instrumentos alternativos. Ita espera katak ho estratéjia investimentu foun, 60% iha obrigasaun no 40% iha asaun, iha probabilidade razoável katak iha longu-prazu Fundu bele atinji retornu real 3%, hanesan ho 3% RSE, ne’ebé sai hanesan sasukat transferênsia anual ba orsamentu estadu.

 

Governu desidi iha tinan 2012 hodi hasae investimentu ba ações públicas, ho montante 0.83% kada fulan durante tinan rua nia laran to’o Juñu 2014 hanesan meius ida prudenti liu hodi atinji objetivu alokasaun 40% ba investimentu iha asaun. Hanesan investor longu-prazu, Fundu Petrolíferu prontu atu asumi risku hodi nune’e bele atinji média retornu longu-prazu ne’ebé a’as. Governu mos desidi iha tinan 2013 hodi diversifika liu tan karteira rendimento fixo hodi redúz konsentrasaun iha Tezouru EUA (Estadus Unidus Ámerika) . Espozisaun inísiu 10% aloka ba obrigasaun nasaun soberanu dezenvolvidu sira ex-EUA, ho limitasaun másimu 30% alokasaun ba Zonaeuro no másimu 10% iha nasaun ida.

 

Agora daundaun, Fundu Petrolíferu investe 60% in Tezouru EUA, 10% iha obrigasaun nasaun soberanu non-EUA no 40% iha asaun merkadu dezenvolvidu. Investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu jere husi BCTL (40%), BIS (10%), Jestor Interinu (5%), AllianceBernstein (5%), SSgA (18%), Blackrock (17%) no Schroders (5%). Fundu Petrolífefru investe iha mais de 2,579 títulus finanséirus, husi ne’ebé 70% investe iha EUA, no restu investe iha nasaun zona Europa, Japaun, Reinu Unidu, Kanadá, Austrália no nasaun dezenvolvidu sira seluk hanesan Dinamarka, Hong Kong, Israel, Nova Zelândia, Noruega, Cingapura, Suécia, no Suísa.

 

Desde Fundu estabelese iha tinan 2005, total reseitas petrolíferas ne’ebé hetan husi esplorasaun kampu rua – Bayu Undan no Kitan, hamutuk $19 billoens. Husi montante ne’e, $5,2 biloens transfere ona ba orsamentu estadu. Total retornu investimentu ita hetan desde inisíu hamutuk 4.4% ou reseitas investimentu akumuladu hamutuk 2.4 biloens. Total Fundu nia balansu iha fim Juniu 2014 hamutuk $16.6 biloens.

 

Tinan 2013 sai hanesan tinan ida diak tebes ba merkadu asaun iha ekonomia nasaun dezenvolvidu sira, enkuantu merkadu obrigasaun la fo retornu ne’ebé diak iha tinan ne’ebá. Iha tinan 2013 deit retornu investimentu husi asaun a’as tebes ho 27%. Maibe retornu asaun tinan ida ne’ebá ita konsidera hanesan eksepsaun ida, tamba sei susar tebes ba merkadau asaun hodi fo rezultadu hanesan iha tinan 2014.

 

Diferensia iha dezenpeñu entre asaun no obrigasaun hatudu mai ita importansia husi diversifikasaun. Wainhira ita investe iha klase ativu oin-oin, ne’ebé dala barak iha mudansa la hanesan, maka Fundu sei hetan protesaun husi impaktu temporáriu retornu negativu entre klase ativu sira ne’e ida.

 

Governu agora daundaun hanoin hela atu hadiak liu tan karteria investimentu obrigasaun no asaun hodi investe iha sub-klase ativu sira seluk atu bele hadiak karaterístika risku no retornu Fundu Petrolíferu.