PF Q3 Report - "Incomes did not exceed expenses" is an unfair assessment

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

Lao Hamutuk and the Diplomat rightly pointed out that Petroleum Fund balance decreased in Q3, compared to Q2 balance. The decrease, as they mentioned, was due to foreign exchange losses and also transfer made to the State Budget.

But arguing that "FOR THE FIRST TIME, EAST TIMOR'S INCOME FROM OIL AND GAS OPERATIONS DID NOT EXCEED THE EXPENSES RELATED TO THE OIL FUND" is unfair.

It seems that their conclusion is based on the following calculation - petroleum revenues in Q3 ($522 mil) minus losses and transfers ($340+231), resulted in about negative $50 mil.

However, it is an unfair comparison in terms of the time period and not a true representation of the withdrawal. Ideally, the government should smooth the expenditure (withdrawal) over the year, by taking out $158 mil/quarter (of total ESI amount of $632 that is expected to be withdrawn in 2014).

The $340 mil amount mentioned here is the total amount the Government had withdrawn so far in 2014 from the Petroleum Fund, just half of the budgeted ESI amount. This amount happened to be a "lump sump" withdrawal in Q3 (as no withdrawals were made in Q1 & Q2). Q3 therefore is bearing the burden of the withdrawal.

To be fair, in term of period comparison, it is better to look at the-year-to-date (YTD) numbers. In doing so, we can see that even if the Government manages to withdraw total ESI amount ($632 mil) by the end of 2014, it is still less than the total revenue received for the year to date ($1,606 mil), not to mention revenues from investment return ($365 mil year to date).

The declining trend in revenue is something that the Government acknowledges publicly in its Annual Budget Book 1. According to that report revenues have peaked in 2012 and are expected to decline from 2013 onward until they cease in 2020 - 2022.