PF Q3 Report - "Incomes did not exceed expenses" is an unfair assessment

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

Lao Hamutuk and the Diplomat rightly pointed out that Petroleum Fund balance decreased in Q3, compared to Q2 balance. The decrease, as they mentioned, was due to foreign exchange losses and also transfer made to the State Budget.

But arguing that "FOR THE FIRST TIME, EAST TIMOR'S INCOME FROM OIL AND GAS OPERATIONS DID NOT EXCEED THE EXPENSES RELATED TO THE OIL FUND" is unfair.

It seems that their conclusion is based on the following calculation - petroleum revenues in Q3 ($522 mil) minus losses and transfers ($340+231), resulted in about negative $50 mil.

However, it is an unfair comparison in terms of the time period and not a true representation of the withdrawal. Ideally, the government should smooth the expenditure (withdrawal) over the year, by taking out $158 mil/quarter (of total ESI amount of $632 that is expected to be withdrawn in 2014).

The $340 mil amount mentioned here is the total amount the Government had withdrawn so far in 2014 from the Petroleum Fund, just half of the budgeted ESI amount. This amount happened to be a "lump sump" withdrawal in Q3 (as no withdrawals were made in Q1 & Q2). Q3 therefore is bearing the burden of the withdrawal.

To be fair, in term of period comparison, it is better to look at the-year-to-date (YTD) numbers. In doing so, we can see that even if the Government manages to withdraw total ESI amount ($632 mil) by the end of 2014, it is still less than the total revenue received for the year to date ($1,606 mil), not to mention revenues from investment return ($365 mil year to date).

The declining trend in revenue is something that the Government acknowledges publicly in its Annual Budget Book 1. According to that report revenues have peaked in 2012 and are expected to decline from 2013 onward until they cease in 2020 - 2022.

KOREKSAUN BA NOTÍSIA TIMOR POST - KONABA “INVESTIMENTU FUNDU PETROLÍFERU”

Iha loron Kuarta, dia 26 Novembru 2014, Jornal Timor Post fo sai notísia ida iha seksaun Ekonomia nian, pájina 11 ho títulu “Osan Mina Hamutuk US$ 2,579 Investe iha Nasaun 14”.

 

Notísia ida ne’e bazeia ba aprezentasaun ne’ebé Sr. Cosme da Costa Araujo, reprezentante husi Unidade Administrasaun Fundu Petrolíferu, Ministériu Finansas, ne’ebeé hetan konvite husi ONG Luta Hamutuk hodi halo aprezentasaun iha loron Tersa, dia 25 Novembru 2014 kona ba “Investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu Timor-Leste” iha sede Luta Hamutuk, Farol, Dili.  

 

Objetivu husi aprezentasaun ne’e maka “atu haforsa kapasidade média hodi halo kobertura ba notísia relasiona ho Fundu Petrolíferu no hasae partisipante sira nia konesimentu konaba Fundu Petrolíferu”.

 

Ami nota katak notísia ne’ebé fo sai balun ladun lós. Tan ne’e, liu husi koreksaun ida ne’e, ami hakarak hadiak fali salan hirak ne’e.

 

Leitores sira presiza tau iha neon katak dadus balun ne’ebeé uza ba aprezentasaun ne’e to’o deit iha fim  Juniu 2014. Nune’e informasaun balun seidauk “update” ho relatóriu ofisial sira ne’ebé fo sai tiha.

 

Aprezentasaun ba mídia sira ne’e hahú hodi hateten katak objetivu estabelese Fundu Petrolíferu maka hodi “maneija ho diak reseitas petrolíferas atu nune’e bele fo benefisiu ba jerasaun agora no mos jerasaun futuru”.

 

Wainhira Fundu Petrolíferu hahú investimentu iha 2005, ita adopta estratéjia investimentu ida simples, hodi investe hotu deit iha obrigasaun sira nivel a’as demoninadu iha dolar EUA. Iha tempu ne’ebá Lei Fundu Petrolíferu No.9/2005 permite mínimu 90% husi Fundu investe iha rendimento fixo  (bonds) demoninadu iha moedas EUA ho nivel a’as no 10% investe iha instrumentu finanseiru sira seluk.

 

Iha tempu ne’ebá estratéjia refere importante tebes hodi tulun Fundu evita espozisaun ba risku no volatilidade, no iha tempu hanesan mos hakbiit no hasae ita nia kapasidade. Maibe estratéjia refere la sustentável, tamba kada tinan ita hasai 3% Rendimentu Sustentável Estimativa (RSE) husi Fundu Petrolíferu, enkuantu investimentu husi Fundu refere fo deit retornu menus husi 2% real.

 

Tamba ne’e, razaun fundamental hodi halo mudansa ba Lei Fundu Petrolíferu maka hodi diversifika investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu liu husi halo investimentu ba iha klase ativu oin-oin, hodi nune’e ita bele hetan aliñamentu entre polítika investimentu ho polítika fiskal. Mudansa ba estratéjia investimentu ne’e haforsa liu tan diversifikasaun hodi ajuda Fundu Petrolíferu mantein prezervasaun kapital, no evita risku konsentrasaun iha klase ativu ida deit.

 

Lei Fundu Petrolíferu foun (Lei No.9/2005, amendada ho Lei No.12/2011) ne’ebé foi lalais ne’e hetan revizaun prevee katak Fundu Petrolíferu investe másimu 50% iha ações públicas, no mínimu 50% investe iha rendimento fixo no la liu husi 5% investe iha instrumentos alternativos. Ita espera katak ho estratéjia investimentu foun, 60% iha obrigasaun no 40% iha asaun, iha probabilidade razoável katak iha longu-prazu Fundu bele atinji retornu real 3%, hanesan ho 3% RSE, ne’ebé sai hanesan sasukat transferênsia anual ba orsamentu estadu.

 

Governu desidi iha tinan 2012 hodi hasae investimentu ba ações públicas, ho montante 0.83% kada fulan durante tinan rua nia laran to’o Juñu 2014 hanesan meius ida prudenti liu hodi atinji objetivu alokasaun 40% ba investimentu iha asaun. Hanesan investor longu-prazu, Fundu Petrolíferu prontu atu asumi risku hodi nune’e bele atinji média retornu longu-prazu ne’ebé a’as. Governu mos desidi iha tinan 2013 hodi diversifika liu tan karteira rendimento fixo hodi redúz konsentrasaun iha Tezouru EUA (Estadus Unidus Ámerika) . Espozisaun inísiu 10% aloka ba obrigasaun nasaun soberanu dezenvolvidu sira ex-EUA, ho limitasaun másimu 30% alokasaun ba Zonaeuro no másimu 10% iha nasaun ida.

 

Agora daundaun, Fundu Petrolíferu investe 60% in Tezouru EUA, 10% iha obrigasaun nasaun soberanu non-EUA no 40% iha asaun merkadu dezenvolvidu. Investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu jere husi BCTL (40%), BIS (10%), Jestor Interinu (5%), AllianceBernstein (5%), SSgA (18%), Blackrock (17%) no Schroders (5%). Fundu Petrolífefru investe iha mais de 2,579 títulus finanséirus, husi ne’ebé 70% investe iha EUA, no restu investe iha nasaun zona Europa, Japaun, Reinu Unidu, Kanadá, Austrália no nasaun dezenvolvidu sira seluk hanesan Dinamarka, Hong Kong, Israel, Nova Zelândia, Noruega, Cingapura, Suécia, no Suísa.

 

Desde Fundu estabelese iha tinan 2005, total reseitas petrolíferas ne’ebé hetan husi esplorasaun kampu rua – Bayu Undan no Kitan, hamutuk $19 billoens. Husi montante ne’e, $5,2 biloens transfere ona ba orsamentu estadu. Total retornu investimentu ita hetan desde inisíu hamutuk 4.4% ou reseitas investimentu akumuladu hamutuk 2.4 biloens. Total Fundu nia balansu iha fim Juniu 2014 hamutuk $16.6 biloens.

 

Tinan 2013 sai hanesan tinan ida diak tebes ba merkadu asaun iha ekonomia nasaun dezenvolvidu sira, enkuantu merkadu obrigasaun la fo retornu ne’ebé diak iha tinan ne’ebá. Iha tinan 2013 deit retornu investimentu husi asaun a’as tebes ho 27%. Maibe retornu asaun tinan ida ne’ebá ita konsidera hanesan eksepsaun ida, tamba sei susar tebes ba merkadau asaun hodi fo rezultadu hanesan iha tinan 2014.

 

Diferensia iha dezenpeñu entre asaun no obrigasaun hatudu mai ita importansia husi diversifikasaun. Wainhira ita investe iha klase ativu oin-oin, ne’ebé dala barak iha mudansa la hanesan, maka Fundu sei hetan protesaun husi impaktu temporáriu retornu negativu entre klase ativu sira ne’e ida.

 

Governu agora daundaun hanoin hela atu hadiak liu tan karteria investimentu obrigasaun no asaun hodi investe iha sub-klase ativu sira seluk atu bele hadiak karaterístika risku no retornu Fundu Petrolíferu.

 

Timor-Leste most tax competitive country in Portuguese-speaking world

November 24th, 2014  

 

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2014/11/24/timor-leste-most-tax-competitive-country-in-portuguese-speaking-world/

 

Timor-Leste (East Timor) is the highest rated among the Portuguese-speaking countries in the list of most competitive nations in the world in terms of tax burden, according to the “Paying Taxes 2015″ study by PricewaterhouseCoopers, published recently.

The study puts Timor-Leste in 55th place, ahead of Portugal in 64th and at a great distance from the other Portuguese-speaking countries – Angola (144th), Brazil (177th), Cabo Verde (91st), Guinea-Bissau ( 150th) Mozambique (123rd) and Sao Tome and Principe.

This list is drawn up based on a set of indicators such as the tax burden for businesses, the number of hours spent dealing with tax issues and the number of annual payments.

In the case of Timor-Leste, the tax applied to companies is at a rate of 11 percent, the number of hours needed to deal with tax matters is 276 and the number of annual payments is 18.

In the case of Portugal the corporate tax burden is 42.4 percent, the number of hours is 275 and the number of payments is only eight.

This study by PricewaterhouseCoopers comparing the tax burden of 189 world economies and drawn up in cooperation with the World Bank, shows that on average companies make eight annual tax payments (a number that has remained constant) and spend 275 hours dealing with tax matters. (macauhub/AO/BR/CV/GW/MZ/PT/ST/TL)

“Juíz Timor oan hetan ameasa” – sé lós mak bosok iha ne’e?

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

 Foin lalais ne’e, mídia internasional, liu-liu sira ne’ebé iha Portugal, no “copy paste” tutan husi mídia lokal balun no naklekar makás lós iha mídia sosial hanesan Facebook, hateten “juiz Timor oan sira hetan ameasa”. 

 

Notísia surpresa ida ne’e mosu, hafoin prokuradora portuguêsa, Sra Glória Alves, ne’ebé hetan espulsaun iha semana hirak liuba, hateten ba Lusa katak nia hetan email ida husi nia kolega juíz Timor oan ida ne’ebé hateten ba nia katak “sira nia moris iha perigu” nia laran. Prokuradora ne’e akresenta katak iha email ne’e juíz timor oan sira husu atu nia kolegas juíz portuguêsa sira husu tulun ba komunidade internasional hodi tulun sira nia siguransa no moris. 

 

Iha loron 12 Novembru, koinsidente ho komemorasaun loron Masakre Santa Krus, Micael Pereira no Rui Gustavo relata ba jornal Expresso no nia versaun Inglês distribuidu mos iha ETAN, hateten katak “juiz Guilermino da Silva, Presidente Tribunal Rekursu no SCM, telefone ba Antonio Piçarra, vice presidente CSM Portugal nian hodi husu ajuda ba situsaun ne’ebé juíz timor oan sira hasoru”. Jornalista nain-rua ne’e mos hatutan tan katak “juiz Guilermino da Silva xave-an iha kuartu ida ho nia kolega nain rua tamba tauk lakon sira nia moris”. 

 

Iha loron tuir mai dia 13 Novembru, mídia barak inklui mos SAPO TL hatoo fali notísia kontradiktória ida mezmu husi fontes de informação hanesan. Ba Lusa juíz Guilhermino rasik desmente notísia ida ne’e. Nia rasik dehan “desconhese” ameasas ba juíz sira. Nia hatutan tan “hau la hatene konaba ida ne’e. To’o agora hau seidauk direitamente haré ameasa ne’e”. 

 

Hafoin mídia lokal sira mos buka tuir no konfirma rasik ho Presidente Tribunal Dili, Sr. Duarte Tilman, iha ne’ebé nia desmente notísia ne’e no konsidera hanesan “rumoris”.

 

Pergunta maka ne’e, sé lós maka la koalia lia-lós iha ne’e, alias bosok.

 

Iha senáriu rua, primeiru - fontes de informação, juíz sira maka bosok ou sigundu – ida ne’ebé fo sai informasaun ou rumoris ne’e uluk maka bosok. 

 

Integridade no kredibilidade husi juíz Guilermino no nia kolegas sira “é uma questão inquestionável”. Katak imposível ba juíz sira ne’e atu ohin koalia buat ida no aban koalia buat seluk. Ba ema sira ne’e, ne’ebé okupa fatin importante iha nasaun ida ne’e hodi tesi lia-lós, laiha dúvida katak ema hirak ne’e koalia deit maka lia-lós. 

 

Se nune’e lia-lós maka ne’e, ida ne’ebé fo sai notísia ne’e maka la koalia lia-lós alias bosok. Notísia kona ba “juíz Timor oan hetan ameasa” ne’e laiha faktus no meramente “rumoris” ida, ne’ebé mídia sira ejajera. Ita lamenta tebes ho hahalok Sra. Prokuradora nian ne’ebé la koalia lia-lós no mos hahalok mídia sira nian ne’ebé tolan tomak Sra. Prokuradora nia sokar-lia, seim halo konfirmasaun direita ho fontes de informação orijinal.

 

Ita kompriende katak ema idak-idak iha reasaun oin-oin ba insidente espulsaun juíz internasional sira foin lalais ne’e. Buat ita husu maka ne’e “para reduzir um bacandinho de emoção quando se expressam”.

 

“Timorese judges’ life under threat” – who is not telling the truth here

*Cosme da Costa Araujo

 It was widely reported by international media, especially by those in Portugal and “copied pasted” by few local media and went viral on social media that “Timorese judges’ life was under threat”.

 

The shocking news came out after the then sacked Portuguese magistrate Glória Alves told Lusa that she got an email from her colleague in Dili saying “their lives are in grave danger”. She further added that “they asked their Portuguese counterparts to appeal to the International Community for help”.

 

Coincided with the commemoration of Santa Cruz massacre, Micael Pereira and Rui Gustavo reported for Expresso and its English version was posted in ETAN saying that “Guilhermino da Silva, the President of the Court of Appeal, and Timorese CSM, made a call to Antonio Piçarra, vice president of Portuguese SCM, ask for help against dramatic situation in the past hour confronting Timorese judges”. Both added that “Guilhermino da Silva locked himself in a house with the two other judges because they fear for their lives”.

 

Next day, various news media including SAPO Timor-Leste, quoted Lusa, reported a contradictory version from the very same source. In Portuguese version, the news reads that “Presidente do Conselho Superior de Magistratura de Timor-Leste DESCONHECE ameaças a juízes”.

 

Thanks to Google Translation, the statement can be roughly translated into English as “the President of CSM does not know any threat against the judges”. He further elaborated that “I am not aware of it. So far, not directly seen this threat”.

 

Local media followed up on this issue with Sr. Duarte Tilman, President of Dili Court and he denied that such thing happened and he called it a mere “rumor”.

 

The question now is who is not telling the truth here. It is either “the source of information” or “the one who report it” in the first place.

 

The integrity and credibility of the source of the information is unquestionable and therefore it is highly unlikely that Judge Guilhermino da Silva and his colleagues would one day say one thing and another day say something else. These people who hold such important positions in the country speak only the truth.

 

We are then left with one and the only truth, which is the one who reported it in the first place did not tell the truth. Therefore, the news about “Timorese judges’ life under threat” is unfounded and it is a mere rumor that is overly exaggerated by the media.  It is gravely regretted that such a reputable magistrate could tell such a deplorable lie and regurgitated by media without confirming with the sources.

 

A good friend of mine once told me that apart from coffee, the next big commodity Timorese can export is gossiping. Sadly, this incident tells me that the Timorese no longer have that competitive advantage, as people in other countries are also good at it.

 

It is understandable that everyone has different reaction to the recent sacking of international judges, but what we ask is “to reduce a bit of emotion when expressing them”.

Xanana Gusmão: “Não é nada contra Portugal”

5/11/2014, 17:52

 

http://observador.pt/2014/11/05/xanana-gusmao-nao-e-nada-contra-portugal/

 

Hugo Tavares da Silva

 

Na origem da decisão de expulsar 50 funcionários internacionais estão as derrotas judicias contra petrolíferas. "Não aceito [perder] por irregularidades, negligência e talvez diga má-fé", acusou.

 

Xanana Gusmão disse esta quarta-feira em entrevista à Agência Lusa que a negligência e até a má-fé de atores judiciais em casos contra companhias petrolíferas levaram à decisão da expulsão dos funcionários internacionais. “Eu não tenho o direito de dizer que isto é incompetência, que nos faz perder dinheiro do Estado?”, questionou. Apesar do tom, o primeiro-ministro timorense vincou ainda que este processo “não é nada contra Portugal”.

 

O governo de Timor-Leste ordenou na segunda-feira a expulsão, no prazo de 48 horas, de oito funcionários judiciais, sete portugueses e um cabo-verdiano, depois dos responsáveis pelo setor judicial timorense rejeitarem acatar a resolução que determinava a suspensão dos contratos e a realização de uma auditoria ao setor. Os alarmes diplomáticos disparam pouco depois em território português. Xanana Gusmão, que negou a intenção de “esfriar as relações com Portugal”, apelou à redução da “emoção com que se expressam” aqueles que comentam ou reagem ao caso da expulsão dos magistrados do país.

 

“Não permitiremos que a nossa soberania seja violada. Entendam que não é nada contra Portugal, não é nada contra os portugueses que estão aqui”, disse o primeiro-ministro timorense. Xanana Gusmão apelou aos portugueses que entendam que este é um caso de soberania e interesse nacional. “O nosso desejo foi só o de interromper o ambiente viciado em que nós perdemos dinheiro quando exigimos às companhias [petrolíferas] para nos pagarem o que deduziram por fraude”, explicou.

 

“Eu não tenho o direito de dizer que isto é incompetência?”

 

Toda esta polémica surgiu devido à derrota em 16 dos 51 processos em tribunal, nos quais estão em jogo cerca de 300 milhões de euros em impostos e deduções ilícitas que as empresas petrolíferas devem ao país, explicou.

 

“Em 16 casos já julgados, o Estado perdeu todos”, informou Xanana Gusmão, explicando que foram perdidos 28 milhões de euros. E continuou: “Verificámos erros inadmissíveis. E aqui coloca-se o problema das competências. Se tivéssemos tido uma cooperação, dizem sempre que os tribunais são independentes, estão acima da lua, as coisas não se tinham levantado tanto assim.”

 

O primeiro-ministro informou ainda que a resolução do parlamento não abrangia todos os internacionais no setor, mas sim aqueles envolvidos em casos judiciais com as petrolíferas. O tom de Xanana não baixou: “Os erros foram tantos, foram tão inadmissíveis que paramos para não influenciar o processo, porque estamos em recurso para recuperarmos o dinheiro que é nosso. (…) Eu aceitaria se perdêssemos porque não apresentámos bem os factos ou não temos visão. Não aceito por irregularidades, negligência e talvez diga má-fé por parte de alguns atores, que nos fazem perder os processos”, afirmou.

 

“Eu não tenho o direito de dizer que isto é incompetência, que nos faz perder dinheiro do Estado?”, questionou. “Tudo junto são 28 milhões que perdemos só por causa disso”, disse, insistindo que vai reestruturar o setor da justiça no país.

 

Xanana Gusmão explicou ainda na entrevista à Lusa que fez um pedido ao parlamento para não levantar a imunidade aos membros do governo até ao final do mandato. “O não levantamento da imunidade é apenas para dizer para nos darem tempo para trazermos mentores de Portugal para ajudar. Não levantar a imunidade não é pedir ao tribunal para arquivar o processo”, explicou.

 

Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros português deplorou a decisão

 

O governo reagiu pouco depois da polémica estalar, na segunda-feira, dizendo estar a acompanhar a situação “com profunda preocupação e desconforto”. Na altura, o Executivo português queixava-se da falta de esclarecimentos, que chegariam 48 horas depois, pela voz de Xanana Gusmão.

 

“O Governo Português deplora, por claramente desproporcionadas, as súbitas revogações de vistos e de autorizações de estada (…)”, pode ler-se na nota enviad às redações pelo ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros (MNE). Lisboa tem realizado “sucessivas diligências e contactos político-diplomáticos de alto nível” junto de Díli nos últimos dias.

How to Get Timor Leste Into Asean by 2020

The Establishment Post

 

Posted by:Edmund SimNovember 19, 2014inFeatured,Headlines,Regional

On October 27th, Mr Christian Whiton, whose work I respect, wrote in WSJ.com on the reasons why Timor Leste should join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). Now I would agree with the political, economic and other reasons put forth in the article. Unfortunately, I do not see how this will become reality any time soon, perhaps not in this decade.

 

Have things changed since 2011, when Indonesia was actively pushing for Timor Leste in its role as Asean Chair?

On the ground, Timor Leste has improved its governance and infrastructure, as Mr Whiton notes in his article. However, sources in the Asean Secretariat and in Dili have indicated to me that Timor Leste is still far behind in understanding and incorporating the aquisof commitments associated with full Asean membership. Much of this is related to the relative lack of skills and human resources in Timor Leste’s government; however, similar issues did not hold back Cambodia from joining Asean, issues which were resolved through the passage of time and the influx of resources.

In Timor Leste, Australia is funding training for young people in skills such as electronics and carpentry to improve their employment prospects.

Just as importantly, Asean itself is not ready for Timor Leste to join its ranks., for reasons big and small. In 2015, Asean is conducting a stocktaking of the Asean Community, which will include a review of the authority and functioning of the Asean institutions. Implementation both of the post-2015 Asean Community agenda and the institutional reform will take time. Asean needs to get this right with its existing members before it takes on a new member.

On the smaller reasons, Dili will need time to develop the physical infrastructure to host the two Asean summits that will come with becoming Asean Chair at some point; one of these Asean summits will also incorporate the East Asia Summit which the leaders of the United States, China and other countries will attend.

Furthermore, if Timor Leste joined now, the rotational Asean Chair position would be filled by Timor Leste in 2020 (currently scheduled to be Vietnam’s term as Asean Chair, as the rotation is supposed to be Malaysia, Laos, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam beginning in 2015; Timor Leste would fit in after Thailand). This means that Timor Leste probably cannot join Asean until Vietnam’s term as Asean Chair in 2020, or more likely, Timor Leste will agree to a delayed term as Asean Chair upon joining. Although these considerations may appear to be minor, they are given weight by the Asean leadership.

Weaving all of these considerations leads to a worst-case scenario of Timor Leste joining Asean by 2023, when its former occupier Indonesia becomes Asean Chair once again. By that year, sufficient time will have passed for Dili to have addressed the large and small concerns regarding its membership application, which should allow Indonesia to make a full court press for Timor Leste once again and succeed where it could not in 2011.

The problem is that 2023 is eight long years away and much could happen in the interim. Furthermore, Asean membership can, in and of itself, be used as a carrot and a stick to encourage Timor Leste to continue with its economic and political reforms. Better then, to give Timor Leste a fixed date of membership, say by 2020 (which was the original date for the Asean Community), but take effort to ensure that Timor Leste can be a fully functioning member by then. That means letting Timor Leste participate as an observer to Asean meetings (something promised by then-Asean Chair Indonesia in 2011 but not really implemented) and increasing support for its accession efforts (both to Asean and the World Trade Organisation (WTO); full accession to the WTO will greatly help Timor Leste deal with its AEC commitments). That also means making accession conditional on achieving set goals during the process, so that Asean does not lock itself into taking on an unprepared Timor Leste.

By doing this, Asean can avoid the mistakes of the European Union. The EU has arguably taken on new members who were unprepared and required years to catch up. The EU also started accession talks with Turkey which became interminable due to domestic European politics and ultimately alienated that country.

Timor Leste, by comparison, carries no such political risks for the Asean leaders but comes with regional risks which can be alleviated by the proper use of time and resources. The bigger risk would be to put off Timor Leste indefinitely and create a underperforming, or worse, failed state at the southeastern edge of Southeast Asia.

This article was written by Edmund Sim, originally published on theAsean Economic Community Blog and reproduced here with their kind permission.